[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 13.0N 74.7W at 07/2100 UTC
or 130 nm N of Barranquilla Colombia, moving W at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms are active within 300 nm of the center.
Seas to 12 ft are likely within 90 nm in the northern semicircle
of Julia. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected
to pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday
evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.
Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over
Central America by Monday. Strengthening is forecast while Julia
moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or
two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by the time
it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands and
reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated
after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a
remnant low or dissipate by Monday. Swells generated by Julia are
expected to reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres
Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America
late Saturday into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
16N16W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to 02N50W near
NE Brazil. Scattered showers are noted along the boundaries
between 25W-43W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the
coast of Colombia near 12N75W to 09N82W. This is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean
south of 15N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the western Gulf is triggering scattered weak
convection from 22N to 26N, between 93W and 97W. To the SE, the tail
end of a stationary front extends along 23N and E of 83W. Otherwise,
weak high pressure is supporting gentle to moderate NE winds and
1-3 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a cold front is expected to reach the northern
Gulf waters tonight, move across the central Gulf Sat, then stall
over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun before
dissipating Mon. Expect increasing NE winds across much of the
basin Sun afternoon through late Mon as the pressure gradient
tightens between high pressure across the Gulf region and lower
pressure in the western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Strom Julia in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

As Tropical Storm Julia tracks along the south central Caribbean,
sea heights are elevated across the basin. Easterly winds are
fresh to strong and seas rough to very rough between 69W and 77W.
Conditions are moderate throughout the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia near 13.0N 74.7W 1002 mb at
5 PM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. Julia will move to 13.1N 77.3W Sat morning, 13.0N 80.1W Sat
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.0N 82.5W Sun morning,
move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 13.2N 85.0W Sun
afternoon, and weaken to a tropical depression near 13.5N 87.5W
Mon morning, and inland to 14.3N 89.8W Mon afternoon. Julia will
dissipate Tue afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected on the
Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina
by Saturday evening, and along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area Sunday morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N63W to
a weak low pressure system over the central Bahamas near 25N77W
and continues to the northern coast of Cuba. Immediately NW of the
boundary, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 3-5 ft
seas. Otherwise, winds are gentle to moderate with slight seas. In
the central Atlantic, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with
4-8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient
is causing fresh NE winds and 6-10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger
over the area, and dissipate by late Sat just ahead of another
cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sat night. The
second front will sweep southeastward, stall from near Bermuda to
South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue.

$$
ERA
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