[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion Update
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Julia is centered in the south-
central Caribbean near 12.9N 73.9W at 07/1800 UTC or 130 nm NNE of
Barranquilla, Colombia moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
are active within 300 nm of the center. Seas to 12 ft are likely
within 90 nm in the northern semicircle of Julia. The risk of
flash flooding continues today over portions of the Gujira
Peninsula before spreading to portions of Central America this
weekend. On the forecast track, Julia is expected to move across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea while gradually strengthening
before making landfall in Nicaragua as a hurricane Sunday morning.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
16N16W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 02N50W near NE
Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 06N,
between 22W and 34W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the
coast of Colombia near 09N76W to central Costa Rica. This is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern
Caribbean south of 14N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the western Gulf is triggering scattered weak
convection from 22N to 29N, between 94W and 97W. Otherwise, weak
high pressure is supporting gentle to moderate NE winds and 1-3 ft
seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a cold front is expected to move into the
coastal Gulf States tonight, enter the central Gulf Sat, then
stall over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun before
dissipating Mon. Expect fresh northeast to east winds across the
southeastern Gulf Sat through late Mon as the pressure gradient
tightens between high pressure north of the fronts and lower
pressure in the western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Strom Julia in the central Caribbean Sea.

As Tropical Storm Julia tracks along the south central Caribbean,
sea heights are elevated across the basin. Easterly winds are
fresh to strong and seas rough to very rough between 69W and 77W.
Conditions are moderate throughout the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia will move to 13.0N 75.5W
this evening, 13.2N 78.7W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane
near 13.1N 81.3W Sat evening, inland to 13.1N 83.6W Sun morning,
move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 13.6N 85.9W Sun
evening, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
14.5N 88.5W Mon morning. Julia will move inland near 16.2N 93.5W
early Tue. Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian
islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday
evening. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of
Nicaragua within the watch area Sunday morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N63W to
a weak low pressure system over the central Bahamas near 25N76W
and continues to the northern coast of Cuba. Immediately NW of the
boundary, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 3-5 ft
seas. Otherwise, winds are gentle to moderate with slight seas.
In the central Atlantic, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with
4-8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient
is causing fresh NE winds and 6-10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger
over the area, and dissipate by late Sat just ahead of another
cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sat night. The
second front will sweep southeastward, stall from near Bermuda to
South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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