[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near
11.9N 69.8W at 07/0300 UTC or 50 nm WSW of Curacao and is moving W
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted around the
center of T.D. Thirteen from 10N to 13N between 69W and 72W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of the low from 13N to
15N between 69W and 74W. Seas are ranging 8-12 ft in the south
central Caribbean. The depression will generally move westward
through Sun. On the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to
move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern Venezuela,
and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia tonight through Fri morning.
The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia Islands Sat
night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on Sun morning.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next 12-24 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Fri
morning. After that, a faster rate of strengthening is likely,
with the system expected to become a hurricane by Sat night as it
approaches San Andres and Providencia Islands. Heavy rainfall
will impact the ABC Islands, portions of South America and Central
America in addition to dangerous swell. Interests in those
locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml for more details.

The Remnants Of Twelve is centered near 18.6N 36.8W at 07/0300
UTC or 750 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving WNW at
15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 160 nm in the NE quadrant.
Seas range 8-10 ft around the center. The remnants will dissipate
overnight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 13N27W. The ITCZ extends from 03N33W to 05N45W to
07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N
between 20W and 30W and from 08N to 12N between 44W and 60W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extending from the
coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W to northern Colombia. This is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern
Caribbean south of 18N between 78W and 85W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure stretches across the Gulf of Mexico. A
weakening stationary front extends through the Straits of Florida
into the southeast Gulf with showers along the boundary. A trough
extends off the South Texas coast from 23N94W to 27N97W. Another
trough extends along the southern Mexico coast from 19N95W to
22N97W. No significant convection is associated with these
features. Winds are light to gentle in the eastern Gulf with
gentle to moderate easterly winds in the central and western
basin. Seas range 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the weak stationary front across the Straits of
Florida will gradually weaken and dissipate overnight. A cold
front is expected to move into the coastal Gulf States Fri night,
the central Gulf Sat, then stall over the southeastern Gulf and
Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating Mon. Expect fresh
northeast to east winds across the southeastern Gulf Sat through
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between high
pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in the western
Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Depression Thirteen.

Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Gulf of
Honduras, S of 19N and W of 84W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
around Cuba and Jamaica. Otherwise, widespread strong winds are
noted in the central Caribbean associated with T.D. Thirteen.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere across the
basin. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern and western Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Thirteen is near 11.9N
69.8W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Thirteen will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 12.4N 72.0W Fri morning, move to 13.0N 75.0W
Fri evening, 13.2N 78.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane
near 13.2N 80.7W Sat evening, 13.3N 83.1W Sun morning, and move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm over Nicaragua near 13.9N
85.4W Sun evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds
slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late
Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over the
south- western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure
gradient tightens between T.D. Thirteen and strong high pressure
north of the Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the
remnants of Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front is analyzed from 31N63W to
a 1015 mb low pressure east of the Bahamas near 26N75W. A
stationary front extends west of the low to the Straits of
Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of
the front N of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted N
of the Lesser Antilles from 17N to 22N between 54W and 63W. Moderate
winds are noted north of the low. Light to gentle northerly winds
are noted elsewhere north of the front. Seas range 3-5 ft. In the
central Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N
to 31N between 29W and 39W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the area with strong winds along the remnants of Twelve.
Seas range 6-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure associated with
the remnants of Twelve and the monsoon trough is causing fresh to
strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the western
Atlantic is expected to become stationary overnight, and
dissipate by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward
reaching from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to vicinity
South Florida and the Straits of Florida Sun and also stall.
Expect northeast winds to increase to fresh speeds across the
central and southern Bahamas starting tonight as the gradient
tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north
of them.

$$
AReinhart
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