[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 18.8N 35.8W at
06/2100 UTC or 700 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas
are peaking at 9-11 ft near and northeast of the center.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 360 nm in
the northeast quadrant. Strong west-southwesterly shear is
expected to increase further while the surrounding thermodynamic
environment continues to dry out over the next couple days.
Therefore, it is still anticipated that the depression will
degenerate into a remnant low soon, and dissipate in a day or so.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at website http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is centered near 11.6N 68.7W
at 06/2100 UTC or 40 nm SSE of Curacao moving W at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking at 9-11
ft, on a building trend. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is south of 16N between 59W and 75W, including over
portions of Venezuela, northern Colombia, and the ABC Islands.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression or
tropical storm by tonight. The system is then expected to become a
hurricane by Sat night as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua.
Regardless of development, gusty winds to gale force and heavy
rainfall. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia,
northern Venezuela, and the island chain of Aruba, Bonaire and
Curacao during the next day or two. Heavy rains and the potential
for flash flooding and mudslides are expected to spread to
portions of Central America this weekend. Interests in those
locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 15N26W. The ITCZ extends from 10N41W to 09N57W. Isolated
to widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to
11N between 42W and 59W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extending from the
border of Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern
Caribbean south of 15N between 75W and 85W including over portions
of nearby areas.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Overall, weak high pressure is creating favorable marine
conditions in the Gulf. A stationary front extends through the
Straits of Florida along 23N to the SE Gulf near 24N87W. A surface
trough extends from offshore Texas near 27N96W to 23N93W. North
and northeast of these boundaries, winds are moderate from the NE
with 1-3 ft seas. South of the boundaries, winds are gentle from
the NE-E with 1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually weaken and
dissipate by Sat. High pressure north of the area will maintain
gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas
through tonight. A cold front is expected to move into the coastal
Gulf States on Fri, the central Gulf Sat and the southeastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun, then stall. Expect fresh
northeast to east winds across the southeastern Gulf starting Fri
and through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between
high pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in the
western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen near the north coast of
Venezuela.

Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 4-6 ft
seas dominate the central and eastern basin. Moderate NE winds
and 2-4 ft seas dominate the NW basin. A surface trough in the
Gulf of Honduras is supporting scattered moderate convection in
the area.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen will move
to 12.0N 70.7W Fri morning, 12.6N 73.6W Fri afternoon, 13.0N 76.7W
Sat morning, 13.0N 79.6W Sat afternoon, 13.1N 81.9W Sun morning,
and inland to 13.3N 84.1W Sun afternoon. Thirteen will move inland
near 14.8N 89.1W Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
northeast winds slight to moderate seas are expected across the
basin through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to
fresh over the south-western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as
the pressure gradient tightens between PTC Thirteen and strong
high pressure north of the Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front is analyzed from 31N64W to
a 1015 weak low pressure center near 26N74W. A stationary front
continues from the low to the Straits of Florida. Behind the
front winds are gentle from the NW, except moderate NE winds
within 75 nm west of the front. Seas are 3-5 ft west of the front.
Ahead of the front winds are moderate with 3-5 ft seas. East of
65W, winds shift to a moderate SE breeze with 4-6 ft seas. In the
central Atlantic, moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas
dominate. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure associated with
Tropical Depression Twelve and the monsoon trough is causing fresh
to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to become
fully stationary by tonight, and dissipate by late Sat. Another
cold front will sweep southeastward reaching from near Bermuda to
the central Bahamas and to vicinity South Florida and the Straits
of Florida Sun and also stall. Expect for northeast winds to
increase to fresh speeds over the southwest part of the area and
Straits of Florida starting tonight as the gradient tightens
between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north of them.

$$
Lewitsky
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