[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 18.3N 34.4W at
06/1500 UTC, or about 610 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is
moving WNW at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts.
A recent scatterometer pass found fresh winds extend up to 600 nm
north of the depression. Combined seas are peaking at 9 to 11 ft
near and north of the center. Strong west-southwesterly shear is
expected to increase further while the surrounding thermodynamic
environment continues to dry out over the next couple days.
Therefore, it is still anticipated that the depression will
degenerate into a remnant low soon, and dissipate in a day or so.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at website http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details.

Advisories have begun on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen
which, as of 06/1500 UTC, was centered at 11.4N 67.0W, or about
130 nm ESE of Curacao. It is moving west at 13 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
30 kts with gusts to 40 kts. A recent scatterometer pass found
fresh winds dominate the eastern Caribbean. Seas are peaking at
10-12 ft, on a building trend. The system does not appear to have
a well-defined center and therefore cannot yet be designated as a
tropical depression, however the risk of tropical storm force
winds has increased for portions of the northern coast of South
America, and advisories are being initiated as a potential
tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, gusty winds to gale
force and heavy rainfall with localized totals of 6-8 inches will
cause flooding over northern portions of South America and the
ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those
locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 15N25W. The ITCZ extends from 13N38W to 12N61W. Widely
isolated moderate convection is observed from 08N to 12N, between
42W and 62W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean from
09N to 15N, between 70W and 84W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Overall, weak high pressure is creating favorable marine
conditions in the Gulf. A stationary front extends through the
Straits of Florida along 23N to the SE Gulf near 24N87W. North of
this boundary, winds are moderate from the NE with 1-3 ft seas.
South of the boundary, winds are gentle from the E with 1-2 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually weaken and
dissipate by Sat. High pressure north of the area will maintain
gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas
through tonight. A cold front is expected to move into the coastal
Gulf States on Fri, the central Gulf Sat and the southeastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun, then stall. Expect fresh
northeast to east winds across the southeastern Gulf starting Fri
and through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between
high pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in the
western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen near the north coast of
Venezuela.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is bringing a large area of
fresh to strong winds to the eastern Caribbean. These winds are
currently generating 8-12 ft seas, on a building trend. Otherwise
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas dominate
the central and SW basin. Moderate NE winds and 2-4 ft seas
dominate the NW basin. A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is
supporting scattered moderate convection in the area.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen near 11.4N 67.0W,
1006 mb at 11 AM EDT, moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds
30 kt gusts 40 kt. PTC Thirteen will move to 11.8N 69.0W this
evening, 12.3N 71.9W Fri morning, 12.9N 74.9W Fri evening, 13.0N
78.0W Sat morning, 12.9N 80.6W Sat evening, and 12.8N 82.7W Sun
morning. PTC Thirteen will move inland over 13.8N 86.8W by early
Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds slight to
moderate seas are expected across the basin through late Fri,
except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over most of the
western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient
tightens between PTC Thirteen and strong high pressure north of
the Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front is analyzed from 31N64W to
a low pressure center near 26N74W. A stationary front continues
from the low to the Florida Straits. Behind the front winds are
gentle from the NW with 3-5 ft seas. Ahead of the front winds are
moderate from the NE with 3-5 ft seas. East of 65W, winds shift
to a moderate SE breeze with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic,
moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas dominate. In the eastern
Atlantic, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure associated with Tropical Depression Twelve and the
monsoon trough is causing fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N65W to a 1014 mb low near 26N74W. The front becomes stationary
from the low to the Straits of Florida. The whole frontal boundary
is expected to become stationary by tonight, and dissipate by
late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward reaching
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to vicinity South
Florida and the Straits of Florida Sun and also stall. Expect for
northeast winds to increase to fresh speeds over the southwest
part of the area and Straits of Florida starting tonight as the
gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to
the north of them.

$$
Flynn
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