[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 06 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 18.0N 33.4W at
06/0900 UTC or about 550 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is
moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined
seas are peaking at 8 to 10 ft near and north of the center.
Satellite imagery depicts the depression as sheared system, with
the center removed well to the west and southwest of its
remaining convection. The convection is of the scattered moderate
to isolated strong type from 18N to 20N between 30W-33W. Scattered
moderate convection is to the north from 21N to 23N. The
convection is diminishing. The depression is forecast to maintain
its current motion over the next day or so. Slow weakening is
forecast, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low
within the next day. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has its axis along
65W south of the Virgin Islands to inland Venezuela. A rather
broad 1006 mb low is to the west-northwest of Margarita Island
near 11N65W. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Overnight
ASCAT data and wave model output reveal fresh to strong northeast
to east and southeast winds, with 8 to 10 ft seas associated with
this system at the southeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Satellite imagery shows an impressive very large cluster of
numerous strong convection south of 12N to inland Venezuela and
from 65W-67W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
with strong gusty winds are elsewhere south of 14N between
61W-75W, including the ABC and Windward Islands, northern
Venezuela and Margarita Island. As this system tracks westward
over the next couple of days, these weather conditions will spread
over northern Colombia. This system has a high chance of
development for the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in the next couple of days by the time the
system enters the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized
flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over
portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South
America, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests
in those locations, in addition to those in Central America,
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott to near the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant
convection is seen near the monsoon trough. An ITCZ curves
westward from near 12N38W to 08N48W and to northeast of Guyana at
10N57W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
30 nm of the ITCZ between 53W-58W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and
northern Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is across the Straits of Florida along 23N and
extends westward to the southeastern Gulf near 24N87W, while a
surface trough is analyzed over the NW Gulf from near 29N94W to
24N92W. Patches of low-level clouds, with isolated showers are
near these features. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure
over the area is allowing for gentle to moderate northeast to
northeast to east winds and seas of 2-4 ft over the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary will drift a bit south today,
then stall and dissipate by Sat. The high pressure will maintain
gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas
through tonight. A cold front is expected to move over the coast
of the Gulf States on Fri, the central Gulf Sat and then the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun, before stalling
early next week. Expect fresh northeast to east winds across the
southeastern Gulf Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient
tightens between high and lower pressure in the western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
potential flooding rain and tropical cyclone development related
to a tropical wave/broad low pressure near the north coast of
Venezuela.

A surface trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated
convection over the Gulf of Honduras. Convergent trades are
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over southwestern
Haiti and nearby waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional weather in the basin. Outside of impacts from the
tropical wave/broad low pressure, moderate to locally fresh
northeast to east trade winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present
over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to northeast
to east trade winds with 3-5 ft seas are in the central basin.
Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the
western basin.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
with strong gusty conditions along with rough seas will persist
across the east-central and southeastern basin through tonight.
The tropical wave/broad low will move across the rest of the
eastern Caribbean through tonight. The low, possibly a tropical
cyclone, will then move across the south-central Caribbean Fri
through early Sat, and the southwestern Caribbean through early
Sun before moving inland Central America around late Sun. The low
will be attendant by strong gusty winds, some with gusts to gale
force, squalls and thunderstorms and rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate northeast winds slight to moderate seas are expected
across the basin through late Fri, except for winds increasing to
moderate to fresh over most of the western Caribbean Fri through
Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between the low and
strong high pressure north of the Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

A mostly dry cold front is analyzed from just east of Bermuda,
southwestward to 28N70W, where it becomes stationary to the
central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Convergent
southerly winds to its east are triggering scattered moderate
convection from 22N to 28N between 62W-68W. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are east of the cold
front to near 57W and north of 26N. Mostly gentle northerly winds
and seas of 5-7 ft due to a northerly swell are behind the cold
front to the Georgia-Florida coast.

Farther east, an upper-level low is identified to be near 25N35W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 29N between
34W-37W. To the east, a surface trough extends from near 28N28W,
south-southeast to 22N27W and to near 18N24W. Areas of rain, with
embedded scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are present
from 24N to 30N between 25W-31W. Moderate to fresh NNE to E
trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft exist near and southwest of the
Canary Islands, north of 21N between the northwest African coast
and 35W. To the south, over the central Atlantic, gentle to
moderate northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 3-5 ft
are from 09N to 31N between 36W and the Lesser Antilles to the
southeastern Bahamas. Elsewhere over the remainder of the area
outside the influence of Tropical Depression Twelve, light to
gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 4-7 ft seas are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front part will become
stationary by tonight, and the entire frontal boundary will
dissipate by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward
reaching from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to vicinity
South Florida and the Straits of Florida Sun and also stall.
Expect for northeast winds to increase to fresh speeds over the
southwest part of the area and Straits of Florida starting late
Thu as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high
pressure to the north of them.

$$
Aguirre
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