[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twelve...
Tropical Depression (TD) Twelve is centered near 17.7N 32.5W at
06/0300 UTC or 500 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving
NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined
seas are peaking at 8 to 10 ft near and north of the center.
Scattered moderate convection is found mainly northeast of the
center from 17N to 19N between 30W and 32W. TD Twelve is forecast
to continue in a NW motion while weakening to a remnant low or
trough in the next 24 to 48 hours. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure...
A tropical wave extends southward from south of the Virgin Islands
across a broad 1007 mb low near Margarita Island at 11.4N 64.4W
into northern Venezuela. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Latest
ASCAT satellite scatterometer data and wave model output reveal
fresh to strong ENE to SE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas associated
with this system at the southeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring
near the ABC and Windward Islands, and over northern and central
Venezuela. As this system tracks westward over the next couple of
days, these inclement weather will spread over northern Colombia.
This system has a high chance of development for the next couple
of days, and a tropical depression could form at the south-central
Caribbean Sea north of Colombia.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized
flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over
portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South
America, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests
in those locations, in addition to those in Central America,
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott to near the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant
convection is seen near the monsoon trough. An ITCZ curves
westward from 11N37W across 09N45W to northeast of Guyana at
10N57W. Isolated thunderstorms are present near and up to 80 nm
north of the ITCZ. Convergent northerly winds near a surface ridge
separating these two features are triggering scattered moderate
convection from 02N to 07N between 20W and 25W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and
northern Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest cold front extends westward from the Florida Straits to
the southeastern Gulf, while a surface trough is southwest of New
Orleans, Louisiana. These features are causing patchy showers
from the southeastern Gulf to the west-central Gulf. Otherwise,
the southern periphery of a 1019 mb high over the Gulf States are
supporting gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas
for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will drift a bit south today, then
stall and dissipate by late Sat. The high will maintain gentle to
moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas through
tonight. Another cold front is expected to move over the coast of
the Gulf States on Fri, the central Gulf Sat and then the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun, before stalling
early next week. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeastern
Gulf Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens
between high and lower pressure in the western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
potential flooding rain and tropical cyclone development related
to a tropical wave/broad low pressure near the north coast of
Venezuela.

A surface trough is generating isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf
of Honduras. Convergent trades are producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over southwestern Haiti and nearby waters. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
basin. Outside of impacts from the tropical wave/broad low
pressure, moderate to locally fresh ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7
ft are present over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to
ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are found in the central basin.
Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the
western basin.

For the forecast, rainy and gusty conditions along with rough
seas will persist across the east-central and southeastern basin
through Thu night. The tropical wave/broad low will track across
the south-central basin Fri through early Sat, and the
southwestern basin through early Sun before moving inland over
Central America around late Sun. It is expected to bring strong
winds with possible gusts to gale force, locally heavy rain and
rough seas to these regions. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the basin
through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh
across the western basin Fri through Sun night as the pressure
gradient tightens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

A mostly dry cold front is curves southwestward from near Bermuda
across 31N67W and the central Bahamas to the Florida Straits.
Convergent southerly winds to its east are triggering scattered
moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 61W and 71W. Strong
divergence associated with an upper-level low near 24N36W is
enhancing scattered moderate convection near its center, and west
of the Canary Islands from 22N to 28N between 25W and 31W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
east of the cold front, north of 26N eastward to 57W. Mostly
gentle northerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell
are present behind the cold front to the Georgia-Florida coast.
Moderate to fresh NNE to E trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft exist near
and southwest of the Canary Islands, north of 21N between the
northwest African coast and 35W. To the south, Over the central
Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are
evident from 09N to 31N/22N between 36W and the Lesser
Antilles/southeast Bahamas. For the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin outside the influence of Tropical Depression Twelve, light
to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas are
present.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall from near
Bermuda to the central/southeast Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida on Fri before dissipating by late Sat. Another cold front
will sweep southeastward reaching from near Bermuda across the
central Bahamas to southern Florida/Florida Straits Sun and then
stall early next week. Expect NE winds to increase to fresh over
the southwest part of the area and Straits of Florida starting
late Thu as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong
high pressure to the north.

$$

Chan
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