[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered in the south-central
Caribbean near 12.1N 71.1W at 07/0900 UTC or 30 nm SE of northern
tip of Guajira Peninsula, Colombia moving W at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are active within 210 nm in the western semicircle
of Thirteen. Seas to 12 ft are likely within 90 nm in the
northeast quadrant of Thirteen. On the forecast track, the cyclone
is expected to move near or over the Guajira Peninsula of
Colombia this morning, then move across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea through Sat. The cyclone is forecast to intensify to a
tropical storm later today then pass near San Andres and
Providencia Islands Sat night, then intensify as a hurricane as it
approaches the coast of Nicaragua on Sun morning. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 14N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to 03N50W. No
significant convection is evident.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends from the
coast of Colombia near 09.5N76W to central Costa Rica. This is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern
Caribbean south of 12N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida.
Weak 1021 mb high pressure is centered off south-central
Louisiana. This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and
slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast, the weak stationary front across the Straits of
Florida will gradually weaken and dissipate during the early
morning. A cold front is expected to move into the coastal Gulf
States tonight, enter the central Gulf Sat, then stall over the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating
Mon. Expect fresh northeast to east winds across the southeastern
Gulf Sat through late Mon as the pressure gradient tightens
between high pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in
the western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Depression Thirteen.

Scattered moderate convection over the southwest Caribbean between
Colombia and Nicaragua, with isolated thunderstorms between
Honduras and Jamaica. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to
moderate seas are evident across the basin, outside of the area of
T.D. Thirteen in the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, Thirteen will strengthen to a tropical
storm near 12.7N 73.5W this afternoon, move west to 13.1N 76.5W
Sat morning, and 13.2N 79.5W Sat afternoon. Thirteen will
strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 82.0W Sun morning then move
inland over Nicaragua, then weaken to a tropical storm near 13.5N
84.3W Sun afternoon, before weakening to a tropical depression
near 14.1N 86.7W Mon morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
northeast winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across
the basin through early next week, except for winds increasing
to moderate to fresh over the south- western Caribbean Fri through
Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between T.D. Thirteen
and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from near
31N63W to a 1015 mb low in the central Bahamas near 25N75W, then
westward to the Straits of Florida. Light to gentle breezes and
slight seas are evident north of the front. Moderate E winds and
moderate seas extend across the region west of 35W. East of 35W,
fresh to strong winds and rough seas are noted north of 15N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger
over the area, and dissipate by late Sat just ahead of another
cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sat night. The
second front will sweep southeastward, stall from near Bermuda to
South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue.

$$
Christensen
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