[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad low pressure system located near 14N29.5W or a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. A cluster of moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of low center.
A band-like of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is to the E of the low center from 08N to 17N between 24W and
28W. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so while moving northwestward at about 5 to 10 kt
over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected
to become less conducive for development by Wednesday and Thursday.
Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds associated
with this system, that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours. An area of 6 to 8 ft seas surrounds the low center,
especially in the SW flow to the S of it. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived wind data
suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be forming in
association with the tropical wave located along 56W or a few
hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the
wave is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds,
conditions could become more conducive for a tropical depression
to form while moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt, crossing the
Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to
become more conducive for development later this week when the
system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and
Wednesday. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and
the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently enroute to investigate this system. Currently, satellite
imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
within about 150 nm S semicircle of low center. Based on recent
scatterometer data, an area of fresh to strong winds is just N of
the low center covering the waters from 11N to 16N between 53W
and 57W where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Similar winds are
also noted within about 180 nm SE quadrant, with higher wind
speeds in and near the convective activity. This system has now a
medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48
hours, and through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast
of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W, then continues WNW to a1008 mb low
pressure located near 14N29.5W to to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N42W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01N to 08N between 20W and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry reinforcing cold front is moving across the NE Gulf. Moderate
NE winds follow the front. A surface trough is analyzed from near
20N91W, northwestward to inland Mexico near Tampico. Elsewhere,
relatively weak high pressure dominates the region supporting
gentle to moderate northeast winds. Seas throughout are in the 1-3
ft range. SW to W upper-level flow is advecting multilayer clouds
across Mexico into the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will drift south across the eastern
Gulf and dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the
area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to
moderate seas through Thu. Looking ahead, another front will move
into the northern Gulf Fri, and stall across the central Gulf
Sat. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeast Gulf late Fri
and Sat between high pressure north of the front and lower pressure
in the Caribbean Sea.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
tropical wave, an associated low pressure, located east of the
southern Windward Islands.

A surface trough remains over the west-central Caribbean and
extends from 29N79W to 10N80W. Light to gentle winds are on either
side of the trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are associated with this feature, affecting mainly
the waters from 12N to 18N between 78W and 84W. Scattered showers
are also seen over the Lesser Antilles, mainly S of Guadeloupe.
Mainly light to gentle trade winds dominate the basin, with the
exception of moderate trades across the ABC Islands, and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft
over the south-central Caribbean, with the highest seas near the
coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure located east of the
Windward Islands will move across the Caribbean through Sat,
accompanied by strong winds and rough seas. Some slow development
of this system is possible during the next several days while the
wave moves generally westward. Interests in the Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across
the basin through late Wed. Fresh northeast winds then develop out
ahead of the tropical wave through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on potential tropical
cyclone development in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas. A cold
front follows it and stretches from 31N75W to inland central
Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake of the cold
front with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A narrow band of showers with
embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the stationary front within
about 60 nm E of a line from 30N68W to 25N70W to 22N74W. A 1021 mb
high is located near 29N50W while another high pressure center of
1024 mb is just N of the Madeira Islands. Under the influence of
these systems, mainly light to gentle winds are observed with seas
of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
through mid week. The cold front will stall from Bermuda to the
southern Bahamas through Thu.

$$
GR
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