[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad low pressure system a few hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
deep convection this afternoon. Organization continues to slowly
improve, and this system has been classified as Tropical
Depression Twelve. Twelve is located near 14.9N 30.5W at 2100 UTC
moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted within 240 nm NE and 180 nm NW quadrants. Twelve is
expected to move NW tonight and Wed and likely strengthen to a
tropical storm. Upper- level winds are expected to become hostile
to this system By late Wed or Wed night, and quickly weaken the
system into Thu. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection continues
across the Tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles this
afternoon, from 08N to 14.5N between 53W and 59W. This weather is
associated with a tropical wave along 57W. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated this system this
afternoon, and found that there is currently no closed low level
circulation, and the system remains ill defined. The very active
showers and thunderstorms occurring with this system are being
displaced to the SE of the mean surface center, due to strong
upper level NW winds. Strong E to SE winds to 25 kt and seas to
10 ft accompany this system from 11N to 16N between 54W and 59W.
This system will continue to move westward across the Windward
Islands late tonight through early Wed and then across the east
and central Caribbean during the next few days. Atmospheric
conditions are forecast to become conducive for development later
this week when the system reaches the central and western
Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands
tonight and across northern Venezuela on Wednesday. Interests in
the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. This system
has now a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the
next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next 5 days. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast
of Guinea Bissau near 12N16.5W, then continues WNW to 1007 mb low
pressure near 14.5N30.5W to 08.5N42W. The ITCZ continues from
08.5N42W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11N57W.Besides convection
described above in the special features section, scattered
clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 03N to
14N between 23W and 28W, and from 07.5N to 10N between 35W and
40.5W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry reinforcing cold front is moving across the E Gulf, and
extends from near 28N89W to S central Florida. Moderate NE winds
follow the front, where seas are 3-4 ft. A surface trough is
analyzed from near 20N91.5W, northwestward to inland Mexico near
Tampico. Elsewhere, relatively weak high pressure dominates the
region supporting gentle to moderate northeast winds. Seas
throughout are in the 1-3 ft range. SW to W upper-level flow is
advecting multilayer clouds across Mexico into the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will drift south across the eastern
Gulf and dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the
area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to
moderate seas through Thu. Looking ahead, another front will move
into the northern Gulf on Fri, and stall across the central Gulf
Sat. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeast Gulf late Fri
and Sat between high pressure north of the front and lower pressure
in the Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
tropical wave, an associated low pressure, located east of the
southern Windward Islands.

A surface trough persists over the west-central Caribbean and
extends from 20N79W to 11N81W. Light to gentle winds are on
either side of the trough axis. Scattered to locally numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted W of the trough to the NE
coast of Nicaragua along 83.5W, and from 13N to 18.5N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms also dot the eastern Caribbean
from 65W to the Lesser Antilles. Mainly light to gentle trade
winds dominate the basin, with the exception of moderate trades
across the ABC Islands to 15N, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas
are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the south-central
Caribbean, with the highest seas near the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure east of the Leeward
Islands will move across the Caribbean through Sat, possibly
intensifying to a tropical cyclone. The low will bring strong
winds and rough seas to the Leeward and Windward Islands tonight,
the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, and into the
southwest Caribbean through Sat before the low moves into Central
America. Interests across the region should monitor the progress
of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to
moderate seas are expected across the basin through late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on newly formed Tropical
Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin, and on the
disturbance located east of the Windward Islands.

A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the central Bahamas. A
cold front follows it and stretches from 31N72W to inland across
south central Florida into the E Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake
of the cold front with seas of 6 to 9 ft. An area of scattered showers
and thunderstorms is well ahead of the stationary front, from
23.5N to beyond 31N between 61W and 70W. A 1021 mb high is
located east of this, near 29N50W while another high pressure
center of 1024 mb is just N of the Madeira Islands. Under the
influence of these systems, mainly light to gentle winds are
observed across the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh
easterly trades extend beyond the disturbance along 57W to 19N.
Seas there are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
through mid week. The reinforcing cold front behind it will move
SE and stall from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas through Thu
then dissipate through Fri. Seas to 10 ft in NE swell north of the
Bahamas and east of northeast Florida will subside through Wed.

$$
Stripling
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