[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 04 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends southward from west
of the Cabo Verde Islands along an axis that is analyzed from
18N29W through a 1008 mb low near 13N29W and to 05N28W. This
system is moving northwestward near 10 kt. Satellite imagery
shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 13N to 17N
between 25W-30W. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that
fresh to strong winds were mainly within 240 nm of the low in
the SE semicircle. Seas with these winds are most in the 8-10 ft
range. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a day or two. There is a high chance for development over the
next 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles,
with its axis along 54W from 05N to 17N. Low pressure of 1009 mb
is along the wave near 11N. This system is moving generally
westward at about 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery shows an increasing
area of concentrated numerous moderate to strong convection
within 60 nm west of the wave and low from 09N to 13N. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave and low from
10N to 13N. Similar activity is within 30 nm of a line from 14N51W
to 15N55W. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days. It is expected to reach the Windward
Islands and eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek, and the western
Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity may cause showery and gusty conditions. This
system has a low chance of development over the next 5 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast
of Senegal near Dakar through the low mentioned in the Special
features section above and continues to 07N40W, where overnight
scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ continues northwestward
to 09N46W and to 13N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 22W-25W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between
35W-40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry reinforcing cold front extends from near Crystal River.
Florida to 29N89W. It is preceded by a surface trough that extends
from Fort Myers west-northwestward to 27N87W. No convection is
noted with these features. Isolated showers may be possible near
the trough. Another surface trough is analyzed from near 20N91W,
northwestward to inland Mexico at 24N98W. Isolated showers are
also possible near this trough. Otherwise, relatively weak high
pressure over the region, with attendant high centers of 1020 mb
over northeastern Texas and 1019 mb over southern Georgia, is
supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast winds mainly over
the NE Gulf and gentle to moderate northeast winds elsewhere.
Seas throughout are in the 2-4 ft range, except for slighter
higher seas of 3-5 ft over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the dry reinforcing cold front that extends
from near Crystal River, Florida to 29N89W and the trough out
ahead of it will continue southward across the eastern Gulf
through this evening, followed by another area of relatively weak
high pressure. This will allow for moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds to prevail mainly over the NE Gulf. High pressure will
then remain centered just N of the area through Sat night.
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will develop over the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida starting early Fri as a
tight gradient builds behind a cold front that will reach the
vicinity of South Florida and the Florida Keys. Strong high
pressure is forecast to build S over the area Fri through Sat
night bringing fresh northeast to east winds and building seas to
most of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves northwestward from offshore of
northwestern Colombia to a 1010 mb low just east of northeastern
tip of Nicaragua and continues northwestward to inland the
southern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen mainly from 12N to 16N between 77W-80W. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 77W. Moderate to fresh
northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 4-6 ft are
over the south-central portion of the sea to near northwest
Colombia. Light to gentle trade winds, with relatively low
seas of 1-3 ft are over the southwestern part of the sea. Gentle
to moderate northeast to northeast to east trade winds along with
seas of 2-4 ft prevail over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the 1011 mb low and its associated surface
trough will change little through Wed, sustaining unstable weather
in the area. Weak Atlantic high pressure will remain centered
across the central Atlantic through Thu before shifting
northeastward. Then, the aforementioned tropical wave east of the
Lesser Antilles will bring showery and gusty conditions to the
Windward Islands and eastern basin near midweek, then to the
western basin over the weekend. Interests in the Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across
the basin through late Wed. Fresh northeast winds then develop
out ahead of the tropical wave through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on potential tropical
cyclone development in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

A surface trough curving southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N73W to central Florida, causing widely scattered
showers north of 28N between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast.
A cold front extends from near 31N76W to inland Central Florida
near Daytona Beach. Fresh north winds are behind the cold front.
A stationary front extends southwestward from just west of
Bermuda across 31N67W to the central Bahamas. Isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to about 60 nm along
either side of the front. Convergent southerly winds to its east
are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 30N
between 60W-68W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the basin.

A 1020 mb high and its related ridge are supporting light to
gentle winds with 3-5 ft seas north of 21N between the northwest
African coast and 54W. To the west, gentle to moderate southerly
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted north of 20N between 54W and
the Georgia-Florida coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh northeast to southeast winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
present from 09N to 21N/20N between the central African coast and
the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to locally moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds with 4-6 ft seas due to a southerly swell prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
merge with the stationary front by early Wed, then move slowly
southeastward across the southeastern Bahamas through Fri night.
Fresh northerly winds will follow the second front across the
northwest waters through Tue night. Fresh northeast winds will
develop north of the weakening boundary Thu through Sat night,
including the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida as the
pressure gradient tightens between the front and high pressure
that builds over the southeastern U.S.

$$
Aguirre
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