[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends southward from west of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 18N28W through a 1008 mb low near 12N38W
to 95N28W, and is moving northwestward near 10 kt. Numerous heavy
showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the low
and Cabo Verde Islands from 12N to 16N between 22W and 31W.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two. There
is a high chance for development over the next 5 days. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles
near 53W from 17N southward through a 1012 mb low near 11N53W, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 14N between 51W and 56W. Slow development is
possible during the next several days. It is expected to reach the
Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek, and the
western Caribbean Sea over the weekend; and cause showery and
gusty conditions. This system has a low chance of development over
the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Senegal near Dakar through the low mentioned in the Special
features section above to 07N38W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen near and up to 140 nm south of the trough west of 31W.
East of 25W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident south of the trough from 03N to 13N, including the Guinea
Bissau and Guinea coast. An ITCZ continues from 07N38W across
08N45W to 12N52W. Widely scattered showers are found up to 100 nm
along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front runs westward from Ceder Key, Florida to just
southwest of Panama City, Florida. To the south, a surface trough
extends westward from near Tampa, Florida to just south of New
Orleans Louisiana. These features are triggering widely scattered
showers over the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Another
surface trough across the Bay of Campeche is producing similar
conditions there. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft exist in these areas. For the remainder of the Gulf, a
1020 mb high extending southward from eastern Texas is providing
gentle to moderate NE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the surface trough across the east-central Gulf
will sink southward across the southeastern Gulf through Tue
evening. In response, the cold front currently over the
northeastern Gulf should also shift southward, reaching southern
Florida and the Keys on Fri. This will allow moderate to fresh NE
to E winds to prevail over the northeastern Gulf. Then the high
pressure over northern Florida will usher these winds farther
southward over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida by
early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves northwestward from offshore of
northwestern Colombia to a 1011 mb low just east of northern
Nicaragua, then turns northeastward to eastern Cuba. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are present from offshore of
Honduras/Nicaragua northeastward across Jamaica to eastern Cuba,
including the Windward Passage. Another surface trough is
generating widely scattered showers at the northwestern basin.

Moderate to fresh ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the
south-central basin north of Colombia. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident at the southwestern basin. Gentle to
moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the 1011 mb low and its associated surface
trough will change little through Wed, sustaining unstable weather
in the area. Weak Atlantic high pressure will remain centered
across the central Atlantic through Thu before shifting
northeastward. Then, the aforementioned tropical wave east of the
Lesser Antilles will bring showery and gusty conditions to the
Windward Islands and eastern basin near midweek, then to the
western basin over the weekend. Interests in the Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across
the basin through late Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on potential tropical
cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin.

A surface trough curving southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N73W to central Florida, causing widely scattered
showers north of 28N between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast. A
cold front extends southwestward from just west of Bermuda across
31N67W to the central Bahamas. Isolated thunderstorms are
occurring near and up to 50 nm along either side of the front.
Convergent southerly winds to its east are triggering scattered
showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 30N between 60W and 67W.
Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
additional weather in the basin.

A 1022 mb high and its related ridge are supporting light to
gentle winds with 2 to 5 ft seas north of 21N between the
northwest African coast and 54W. To the west, gentle to moderate
southerly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted north of 20N
between 54W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Farther south, gentle
to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 8
ft exist from 09N to 21N/20N between the central African coast and
the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to locally moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N65W to the southeastern Bahamas, and to eastern Cuba early on
Tue. Meanwhile another cold front presently moving across the
waters east-northeast of northern Florida will sink southward
across the northwest part of the area. Fresh N winds will follow
in behind this second front. These fronts will gradually merge
from near 31N70W to 24N79W Wed morning, then move slowly
southeastward across the central Bahamas through Fri. Fresh
northerly winds will follow the merged front across the northwest
waters through Tue night. Fresh NE winds will develop north of the
weakening boundary Thu through Sat night, including the NW
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida as the pressure gradient
tightens between the front and high pressure that builds over the
southeastern U.S.

$$

Chan
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