[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near Freetown to 08N15W. Scattered moderate convection is
present south of the trough from 05N to 07N between the Liberia
coast and 15W. An ITCZ continues from 08N15W across 06N30W to
01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 180 nm along
either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is creating
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Panama
and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches southwestward from near Tampa, Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring near and up to 90 nm north of the front between 94W and
the Mexican coast, while scattered showers are found along and up
to 70 nm north of the rest of the front. Divergent southerly winds
aloft are coupling with convergent trades to trigger scattered
showers and thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche.

Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident
behind the cold front. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
ENE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail south of the cold front,
including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from
near Fort Myers, Florida across 25N89W to southern Texas by early
Thu evening, then gradually dissipate through Thu night. Strong
high pressure building behind the front will shift eastward
through Fri as another, weaker cold front approaches eastern
Texas. This next front may move over the far northern Gulf on Sat
afternoon before stalling, then weaken and dissipate by early
Mon. No significant impacts on winds and seas are expected from
this front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will linger over the
southeastern and south-central Gulf Fri night through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N67W to the northwest Bahamas. This feature continues to sustain
a NE to ENE trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean Basin.
Convergent trades are producing isolated thunderstorms near
Jamaica and Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong NE
to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted near the Windward
Passage, south of Cuba and just north of Barranquilla, Colombia.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE trades with 4 to 6
ft seas are observed across the eastern and central basin. Gentle
to moderate NE to ENE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are found over the
northwestern and southwestern basin. The exception is gentle to
moderate monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas just north of Panama.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate
to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
through Thu afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba,
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Thu night. Aerial
coverage of strong winds will increase through Sat night as high
pressure builds north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches southwestward from south of the Carolina
coast across 31N79W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered
showers are present near and up to 60 nm south of the front.
Another cold front curves southwestward from the north central
Atlantic through 31N50W to 26N61W, then continues as a stationary
front to the central Bahamas. Patchy showers are seen near and up
to 60 nm south of this boundary. A robust upper-level trough near
28N51W is causing scattered moderate convection north of 20N
between 42W and 53W. A surface trough is producing scattered
showers east of Trinidad and Tobago from 07N to 14N between 51W
and 57W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present west
of the first cold front to the Georgia/northern Florida coast.
Moderate to fresh NE winds with 10 to 12 ft seas in northerly
swell are seen near and northwest of the second cold front.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate ENE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
are found over the western Atlantic north of 20N between 52W and
the central/southern Florida coast. To the south and east, gentle
to moderate with locally fresh NNE to ESE trades and 8 to 11 ft
seas in northerly swell are evident north of 21N between the
northwest African coast and 52W. Farther south, gentle to moderate
NE to E trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft are seen north of 04N
between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to
moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in
southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the central Atlantic cold front
will become stationary to the central Bahamas before weakening
tonight and dissipate on Thu. The western Atlantic cold front
will reach from near 31N63W through the NW Bahamas to Southern
Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri
afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with
increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast
waters W of 65W. Long-period north to northeast swell will impact
the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with
rough seas during the weekend.

Of note: November 30 marks the end of the Hurricane Season
across the Atlantic basin, that includes the Caribbean Sea and
the Gulf of Mexico. In total, this hurricane season produced 14
named storms, of which eight became hurricanes and two
intensified to major hurricanes. An average hurricane season has
14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The
2022 season saw three hurricane landfalls along the coast of
U.S. mainland. Hurricane Ian made landfall fists as a Category 4
storm in Cayo Costa, Florida, and again as a Category 1 in
Georgetown, South Carolina. Hurricane Nicole made landfall as a
Category 1 in north Hutchinson Island, Florida. Fiona made
landfall outside the mainland U.S. as a Category 1 near Punta
Tocon, Puerto Rico. Major Hurricane Ian tied for the fifth-
strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S.

$$

Chan
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