[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 010841
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Lisa has continued to expand
overnight, and there has also been some increase in banding
noted in infrared satellite imagery.  However, data from an earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft suggest that this has not
yet resulted in an increase in intensity.  The plane found
flight-level and SFMR winds to support an initial intensity of
40 kt, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity.  Another
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the cyclone this morning.

Lisa appears poised to strengthen given the recent increase in
organization and expected favorable environmental conditions.  The
storm will be traversing SSTs of around 29 degrees Celsius and
remain within an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear.  As a
result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening,
and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours when it is
near the Bay Islands of Honduras.  The NHC wind speed forecast
follows the ICON and HFIP corrected consensus aids, which is
between the higher regional hurricane models and the lower
statistical aids.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and
Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72
hours and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The tropical storm is moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt.
A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa
should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track
during the next couple of days.  This motion is expected to bring
the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early
Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday.  The
dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC
track is near the middle of the guidance envelope.  The updated
track forecast is slightly north of the previous track at 12 and
24 hours, but is very similar to the earlier official forecast
thereafter.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Caribbean coast
of Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
where tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday
afternoon.

3. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Honduras, including
the Bay Islands starting late Tuesday through Thursday.

4.  There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the
core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 16.0N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 16.4N  82.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 16.7N  84.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 16.9N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 17.0N  88.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 60H  03/1800Z 17.0N  90.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/0600Z 17.0N  91.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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