[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 011458
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided
critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has
started to intensify.  Flight-level winds have increased to
55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde
data of about 50 kt.  Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt
as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite
classifications.

Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small
radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with
the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample
fuel.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening
and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is
near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it
approaches Belize.  For now, rapid intensification is not forecast,
but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are
increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast
is higher than the bulk of the guidance.  After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly
thereafter.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt.  No
significant changes were made to the track forecast.  A strong low-
to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the
tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next
couple of days.  This motion is expected to bring the core of the
cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and
across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday.  The dynamical models
remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and possible along the coast of Belize by
Wednesday afternoon.  Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern
Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

2.  There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into
Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through
Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 16.3N  81.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 16.6N  83.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.8N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.0N  88.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 17.0N  89.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  04/0000Z 17.0N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/1200Z 17.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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