[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 01 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A fast moving cold front entered
the NW Gulf this morning, and now stretches from the western
Florida Panhandle to northeastern Mexico near 24N98W. The most
recent scatterometer data show strong to near gale force N-NE
winds behind the front with few wind barbs of 35 kt. A buoy
observation offshore Port OConnor, TX also reported gale force
winds. Seas of 8-9 ft are noted behind the front. A rope cloud
delineates the leading edge of the frontal boundary while
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front,
particularly near the Tampico area where gusty winds to 20 kt
have been reported. Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist
behind the front through early Thu morning. The front will reach
from central Florida to northeastern Mexico this evening, where
it will stall and gradually dissipate through late Thu. Strong
high pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing moderate
to fresh easterly winds across the basin. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 04N35W and
to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 03N-07N between 32W-41W, and from 01N to 03N between
38W and 44W

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front producing frequent gusts to gale force is moving
across the northern Gulf waters. Please see the Special Features
section above for the latest information.

Elsewhere ahead of the front across the Gulf, the pressure gradient
remains fairly weak, resulting in mainly light to gentle E to SE
breezes. A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf and extends
from 24N97W to the western Bay of Campeche. An ASCAT pass indicates
the wind shift associated with this trough, with gentle northerly
winds within about 60 nm of the coast of the state of Veracruz,
Mexico. Seas ahead of the front are in the 1 to 3 ft range.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
central Florida to northeastern Mexico by early this evening,
where it will stall and gradually dissipate through late Thu.
Please, the Special Features section above for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea continues to support
moderate to fresh trade winds in the east and central Caribbean,
including also the Windward Passage where seas are in the 5-7
ft range. Mainly moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted
over the NW Caribbean. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in
the trade wind flow, are noted across the basin moving westward
and producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
through Thu afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba,
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Thu night as a
strong high pressure of 1035 mb settles N of the area. The
aerial coverage of the strong winds will increase through Sat
night as the strong high pressure moves from the mid-Atlantic
states into the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure centered
near 32N52W to 26N62W where it becomes stationary to the central
Bahamas. Patches of mainly low clouds with possible showers are
along the frontal boundary. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
area near the western end of the front over the Bahamas. Nassau
was reporting thunderstorm in the vicinity. Mainly fresh north
to northeast winds are present behind the front to about 60W,
along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. A surface trough runs from 27N50W
to near 10N54W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are on either
side of the trough axis. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
mainly on the E side of the trough from 20N-27N between 43W-51W.
This trough is likely the surface reflection of a sharp upper-
level trough extending from 31N51W to just E of Trinidad and
Tobago Islands. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
under the influence of a 1021 mb high pressure located SW of the
Azores near 36N30W. the pressure gradient between this high
pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports and
area of fresh to locally strong trades over the eastern
Atlantic, especially from 14N-23N E of 40W. Long period NW swell
continues to propagate across the Atlantic waters with seas of
8-11 ft covering the waters SE of a line from 31N36W to 22N50W to
15N59W. This swell event reaches the Canary, Madeira and Cabo
Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will
dissipate tonight. Another cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast this evening. The front will extend from near
31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then
become stationary near 25N by late Fri afternoon. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and
building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 65W. Long-
period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between
the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during
the weekend.

Of note: November 30 marks the end of the Hurricane Season
across the Atlantic basin, that includes the Caribbean Sea and
the Gulf of Mexico. In total, this hurricane season produced 14
named storms, of which eight became hurricanes and two
intensified to major hurricanes. An average hurricane season has
14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The
2022 season saw three hurricane landfalls along the coast of
U.S. mainland. Hurricane Ian made landfall fists as a Category 4
storm in Cayo Costa, Florida, and again as a Category 1 in
Georgetown, South Carolina. Hurricane Nicole made landfall as a
Category 1 in north Hutchinson Island, Florida. Fiona made
landfall outside the mainland U.S. as a Category 1 near Punta
Tocon, Puerto Rico. Major Hurricane Ian tied for the fifth-
strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S.

$$
GR
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