[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
29N82W in Florida, to just to the south of the Tampa
metropolitan area, to 22N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. NW gale-force winds are
from 19N to 20N between 95.5W and 96W. The sea heights are
ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet from 93W westward, from the cold
front northward. Expect NW gale-force winds, and sea heights to
range from 10 feet to 15 feet, during the next 48 hours, from
19N to 24N between 95W and 98W, including within 90 nm of the
coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Please, read the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST, at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland, reaching the western sections of
Senegal. The ITCZ is along 08N16W 08N25W 05N30W. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface trough breaks up the ITCZ between 30W and 37W.
The ITCZ continues along 05N37W 06N44W 10N49W 10N52W. A second
surface trough is along 52W/54W from 16N southward.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from the ITCZ to
13N between 44W and 50W, in an area of speed shear. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that
is from 15N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds for the next 48 hours.

A cold front passes through 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
29N82W in Florida, to just to the south of the Tampa
metropolitan area, to 22N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range
from 10 feet to 15 feet from 93W westward, to the north of the
cold front. Upper level westerly winds are moving through the
entire area. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is within 180 nm on either side of the cold front. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are
elsewhere, from the cold front northward and northwestward.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are elsewhere in the wake of the
front. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1
foot to 3 feet, are to the south and to the southeast of the
cold front. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from 90W
eastward, to the north of the cold front.

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central
Bay of Campeche this morning and will move SE and extend across
the SE Gulf on Thu morning, and move just SE of the basin by Thu
evening or Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds, with
frequent gusts to gale force within 120 nm of the Mexican coast
follow the front. Strong high pressure will begin to build over
Texas today, tightening the gradient across the Gulf region. As
a result, expect increasing winds and building seas across most
of the basin, with gale force winds over the SW Gulf late today
through Thu night. High seas will build over the SW Gulf by late
Thu. Looking ahead, a trough or low pressure is
forecast to develop over the western Gulf during the upcoming
weekend. This system could bring gale conditions over most of
the western Gulf, and strong winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 73W/74W from 14N in the Caribbean Sea
to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery in much of the area. High level moisture is pushing
northward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers span the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are in the eastern and the
central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are
close to the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are in
the NW Caribbean Sea, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE
winds in the lee of eastern Cuba, particularly in the Jardines
de la Reina Islands. The comparatively highest sea heights range
from 6 feet to 8 feet in the south central sections of the
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
mostly, elsewhere, from Jamaica eastward and southward. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 16/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.22 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W, southwestward, through
eastern Panama and the southern part of Panama that is along
81W, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward, from 74W
westward.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the central
Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support
moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several
days. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse off Colombia
tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel
late Thu, with seas building in the far NW Caribbean Thu through
Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
29N82W in Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are from 26N northward from 60W westward.

An upper level trough is along 28N43W 19N47W, to the central
parts of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong, are from 18N northward between 30W
and 50W.

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N39W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 70W eastward. The surface pressure gradient, that
is between the 1025 mb high pressure center and lower pressures
in the deep tropics, supports moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds in much of the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to locally strong winds are from
the 52W/54W surface trough eastward. Northerly swell continues
in most of forecast waters from 50W eastward, and the sea
heights there range from 6 feet to 9 feet. The sea heights range
from 3 feet to 5 feet from 50W westward.

A cold front is exiting the NE Florida coast this morning, and
will move SE and reach from 31N73W to south Florida by Thu
morning, and from 31N70W to western Cuba by Fri morning. Fresh
NW winds will briefly follow the front on Thu. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another
cold front will enter the NE Florida waters, bringing fresh
northerly winds behind it.

$$
mt
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