[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends this evening from near Naples, Florida, to
the far E Bay of Campeche. Behind it, fresh to strong winds
dominate, except for gales within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico. These will persist through Thu night, with seas on Thu
building to as high as 15 ft. Please read the high seas forecast
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 05N30W, then continues on the
other side of a surface trough, from 05N37W to 08N46W to 10N52W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from the
ITCZ to 13N between 44W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection
exists within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds within the next 48 hours.

A cold front that stretches from near Naples, Florida, to the
eastern-most Bay of Campeche is inducing fresh to strong N winds
behind it along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Ahead of the front, gentle NE
winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate
convection extends within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

For the forecast, the front will move SE and extend across the
far NE Gulf on Thu morning, and move just SE of the basin by Thu
evening. Strong to gale force northerly winds prevail within 120
nm of the Mexican coast to the W of the front. Strong high
pressure building over Alabama today will tightening the pressure
gradient across the Gulf through Fri. As a result, expect
increasing winds and building seas across most of the basin, with
gale force winds over the SW Gulf through early Fri. A trough is
forecast to develop over the western Gulf during the upcoming
weekend. This pattern could bring gale conditions over most of the
western Gulf, and strong to near gale winds over the eastern and
south-central Gulf Sat evening through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic, across the Windward
Passage, southward to about 15N74W. No significant precipitation
is occurring with the trough, and the only active convection is
along and S of 11N between Costa Rica and Colombia, where
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is associated
with the eastward extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to locally strong trades exist in the central Caribbean and
Windward passage, with fresh to strong trades in the eastern
basin, and gentle to moderate NE winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7
ft across the basin, except 3 to 5 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between 1023 mb high
pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW
Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds
during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
will pulse off Colombia tonight and again Sat night. A cold front
is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, and stall
across the NW Caribbean Fri. Strong NE winds will prevail behind
the front across the Yucatan Channel, while seas build across the
far NW through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N77W to Central Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and behind this
boundary. An upper level trough along 43W roughly between 10N and
25N is inducing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm on
either side of its axis, otherwise the basin is dominated by high
pressure, centered near 32N40W at 1023 mb.

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are ongoing behind the cold
front, otherwise, N of 22N, light to gentle winds prevail, with
moderate to locally fresh trades to the S. There is an area of
locally strong E winds near the coast of Hispaniola. To the E of
60W, seas are 6 to 8 ft, with 4 to 6 ft seas to the west, except
1 to 3 ft near and to the W of the Bahamas.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and stall from near
Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu night.
Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front tonight through early
Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the
weekend, another cold front will enter the NE Florida waters,
bringing fresh to strong northerly winds behind it.

$$
KONARIK
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