[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from northern
Florida near 30N83W to the central Bay of Campeche will reach
from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche this
morning. The front will extend across the SE Gulf on Thu morning,
and move just SE of the area by Thu evening or Thu night. Fresh to
strong northerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force follow
the front. Strong high pressure will begin to build over Texas
today, tightening the gradient across the Gulf region. As a
result, expect increasing winds and building seas across most of
the basin, with gale force winds over the SW Gulf, including the
Veracruz area, late today through Thu night. Very rough seas will
build over the SW Gulf by late Thu. Looking ahead, a trough or low
pressure is forecast to develop over the western Gulf during the
upcoming weekend. This system could bring gale conditions and very
rough seas over most of the western Gulf, and strong winds with
moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast
near Dakar to 14N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N35W to
08N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 06N between 20W and 30W. A surface trough is within
the ITCZ along 48W. Scattered moderate convection is near the
trough axis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean,
mainly S of 11N between 77W and 82W. This convective activity is
affecting the Atlantic offshore waters of Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions across the Gulf of Mexico are associated with
a cold front that will continue to move across the basin through
at least Thu. Gale force winds are expected in the wake of the
front mainly over the SW Gulf. Please read the Special Features
section above for details. Recent scatterometer data indicate
strong to near gale force NW winds over the SW Gulf while an
altimeter data provide observations of 8-11 ft seas. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are noted elsewhere in the wake of the
front with seas of 8-10 ft over the far western Gulf. Ahead of the
front light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate
to locally fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean,
with fresh to locally strong trades near the coast of Colombia.
Seas are generally 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
over the NW Caribbean, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE
winds in the lee of eastern Cuba, particularly across Jardines de
la Reina Islands. Seas are 2-4 ft. A surface trough is analyzed
along 71W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are
associated with the trough, more concentrated just S of Haiti.
Elsewhere, low-topped trade wind showers are noted moving westward
across the area.

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean
will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next
several days. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse off
Colombia tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan
Channel late Thu, with seas building in the far NW Caribbean
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure located near 31N40W dominates the Atlantic
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds over much of the east and central
tropical Atlantic, with an area of fresh to locally strong winds
E of the above mentioned trough located along 48W. Northerly swell
continues to propagate across most of forecast waters E of 55W
with seas of 6-9 ft based on altimeter data. An upper-level trough
extending over the central Atlantic to the Windward Islands is
generating isolated showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off NE Florida
this morning, reach from 31N73W to south Florida by Thu morning,
and from 31N70W to western Cuba by Fri morning. Fresh NW winds
will briefly follow the front on Thu. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will
enter the NE Florida waters, bringing fresh northerly winds.

$$
GR
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