[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A large dome of high pressure over
Texas and Oklahoma will continue to channel northerly winds across
the western Gulf. By interacting with an existing cold front
across the southwestern Gulf, these winds will remain at near-gale
to gale force across the west-central Gulf and western Bay of
Campeche at least through Thu night. Seas of 7 to 10 ft will build
further to between 10 and 14 ft by late Thu afternoon. Please read
the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
Dakar to 14N20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of
the trough from 02N to 09N between the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast
and 20W. An ITCZ meanders westward from 07N20W across 06N30W to
08N45W. Similar conditions are present up to 100 nm north, and 200
nm south of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an
embedded 1008 nm low are triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms near Panama and northwestern Colombia, and adjacent
Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a
Gale Warning.

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1015 mb low over the
Florida Big Bend area through the northern Bay of Campeche to
near Vera Cruz, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring near and
up to 80 nm northwest of this boundary. Isolated thunderstorms are
found southeast of the low near Tampa, Florida. Outside the Gale
Warning area, fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
evident over the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds with 2
to 4 ft seas exist at the eastern Bay of Campeche and south-
central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa Bay,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning, and then
the southeastern Gulf on Thu morning. Fresh to strong northerly
winds follow the front with gale-force winds occurring near
Tampico, Mexico. The gales will migrate southward to near
Veracruz, Mexico tonight. By Wed, strong high pressure will build
more over Texas, further tightening the gradient across the Gulf
region. As a result, expect increasing winds and building seas
across the basin, with gale force winds and very rough seas
persisting across the southwestern Gulf, including the Veracruz
area, late Wed through Thu night. Strong winds will persist in
the SW Gulf through Fri before the next cold front enters the
basin on Sat. Gales are possible in the western Gulf again with
this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough south of the Dominican Republic is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over southern
Hispaniola and the central basin. Convergent trade winds are
creating isolated thunderstorms near the Venezuela coast, and
Trinidad and Tobago. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to locally
strong NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at the south-
central and southwestern basin, north of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present for the eastern
and north-central basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle
to moderate NE to ENE trades with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean
will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next
several days. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the
Windward Passage through Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
will pulse off Colombia tonight and Wed night. A cold front is
forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, with seas
building in the far northwestern Caribbean through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough near 29N56W is producing scattered moderate
convection from 26N to 29N between 52W and 56W. An upper-level low
near 25N50W is inducing scattered showers from 21N to 28N between
40W and 50W. A surface trough northeast of French Guiana is
generating similar conditions from 08N to 18N between 44W and 52W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge related to a 1026 mb high near 31N41W is
sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in
northerly swell north of 27N between 45W and the Georgia-Florida
coast. Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE trades with 7 to 9 ft
seas are evident from 07N to 27N between 32W and the Lesser
Antilles. For the eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE
trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen north of 09N between the
African coast and 32W/45W. Gentle to moderate southerly and
monsoonal winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off northeastern
Florida early Wed, reach from 31N74W to southern Florida by Thu
morning, and from 31N68W to western Cuba by Fri morning. Fresh NW
winds will briefly follow the front on Thu. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold
front will enter the northeastern Florida waters, bringing fresh
northerly winds.

$$

Chan
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