[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152215
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front moving through the Gulf
of Mexico will induce gales this evening offshore Veracruz as it
passes, followed by an additional round of gale conditions Wed
through at least Thu. Seas in this region may approach 12 ft.
Please, read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes out of Senegal near 13N16W to 08N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N33W to 06N42W. A surface
trough is along 43W from 03N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection
extends between the monsoon trough and ITCZ and 13N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the forecast for gale-force winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico, over
the next 48 hours.

A 1014 mb low pressure is centered over the western tip of the
Florida Panhandle, with a cold front extending SW from the low
across the Gulf, to near Veracruz. Scattered moderate convection
is noted between 24N and 26N E of 90W. Behind the front, fresh N
winds dominate, with strong winds over the western Gulf S of 25N.
Ahead of the front, winds are gentle. Seas behind the front are 5
to 7 ft, except 7 to 10 ft in the area of strong winds. Ahead of
the front, seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa Bay,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. The front
will reach the SE Gulf on Thu morning. Fresh to strong northerly
winds follow the front with gale force winds occurring near
Tampico, Mexico. The gales will migrate southward to near
Veracruz, Mexico this evening into tonight. By Wed, strong high
pressure will build over Texas, tightening the gradient across the
Gulf region. As a result, expect increasing winds and building
seas across the basin, with gale force winds over the SW Gulf,
including the Veracruz area, late Wed through Thu night. Very
rough seas will build over the SW Gulf by late Thu. Strong winds
will persist in the SW Gulf through Fri before the next cold front
enters the basin on Sat. Gales are possible in the western Gulf
with this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Haiti to Aruba. Dry air is
precluding significant convection, except for in the far SW basin,
along 11N between Panama and Colombia, where the eastern extension
of the East Pacific monsoon trough is leading to scattered
moderate convection. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the
central and eastern Caribbean, with locally strong winds in the
Windward Passage and offshore Colombia. To the west, gentle to
moderate trades are ongoing. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft
in the NW basin.

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean
will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next
several days. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the
Windward Passage through Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
will pulse off Colombia tonight and Wed night. A cold front is
forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, with seas building
in the far NW Caribbean through Fri.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from Bermuda to NE Florida.
A surface trough stretches from 30N60W to Hispaniola. Scattered
moderate convection is located within 90 nm on either side of the
trough, to the N of 24N. Farther E, another surface trough is
along 57W from 13N to 23N. This trough is inducing scattered
moderate convection from 14N to 22N between 50W to 57W.

Despite these features, the overall basin is being dominated by a
1026 mb surface ridge centered near 32N39W. This is leading to
gentle to moderate winds N of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades
to the S. W of 50W, seas are 5 to 7 ft, with 7 to 10 ft to the E.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off NE Florida
early Wed, reach from 31N74W to south Florida by Thu morning, and
from 31N68W to western Cuba by Fri morning. Fresh NW winds will
briefly follow the front on Thu. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter
the NE Florida waters, bringing fresh northerly winds.

$$
KONARIK
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