[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 12-hour forecast, for Tuesday night, consists of a cold
front along 30N85W 18N95W. Expect on Tuesday night: gale-force
NW winds, and sea heights to 8 feet, from 19.5N to 20.5N between
95.5W and 96.5W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz
in Mexico. Expect also N to NE winds that range from 20 knots to
30 knots, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 11 feet,
from 19N to 26N between 93W and 98W. The wind speeds are
forecast to become less than gale-force, during the late night
and early morning hours of Wednesday, before the sunrise.
Please, read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border area of the coastal
plains of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N20W, to 06N28W 05N38W 06N41W. A surface
trough is along 42W/43W from 03N to 15N. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N southward from
the 42W/43W surface trough eastward. An upper level trough is
along 53W from 10N northward. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 25N between 40W and
60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
forecast for gale-force winds, with a cold front, during the
next 12 hours.

A 1013 mb low pressure center is in southern Mississippi. A
stationary front extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center
eastward, beyond 29N82W in Florida, into the Atlantic Ocean. A
cold front extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center,
southwestward, through 28N90W, to the coast of Mexico near
22N98W, to 22N100W in Mexico. A surface trough is along 25N91W
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the
following line: from 26N at the SW Florida coast near 26N, to
25N90W, to 24N93W and the stationary front and the cold front.
Isolated moderate is from 24N southward between the surface
trough and the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from the cold front
northward and northwestward.

Fresh to strong SE to S winds, and the sea heights range from 5
feet to 7 feet, are from 26N northward from the cold front
eastward to 87W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and sea
heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the remainder
of the Gulf of Mexico to the east of the cold front. An
exception is sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet in
much of the eastern Gulf from 87W eastward. Fresh to strong
northerly winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7
feet, are from the cold front westward.

A cold front extending from the coast of Mississippi to Tampico,
Mexico will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida near 28N83W to the
central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. The front will reach the
SE Gulf on Thu morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through today over the NE Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will follow the front with a area of gale force winds near
Veracruz, Mexico this evening into tonight. By Wed, strong high
pressure will build over Texas, tightening the
gradient across the Gulf region. As a result, expect increasing
winds and building seas across the basin, with gale force winds
over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, from late Wed
through Thu night. Very rough seas will build over the SW Gulf
by late Thu. Strong to near gale force winds will persist in the
SW Gulf through Fri before the next cold front enters the NW
Gulf by Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 69W/70W from 13N in the Caribbean Sea,
from 13N to the eastern Dominican Republic. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from the
line of 11N62W to the NE corner of Nicaragua, northward.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery. Isolated moderate rainshowers
span the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are in the eastern and
central sections of the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh NE winds are in the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds are in the NW Caribbean Sea,
including in the Gulf of Honduras. The comparatively highest sea
heights are 7 feet near the coast of Colombia between 75W and
76W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the rest of
the Caribbean Sea.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 15/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.74 in Trinidad, 0.68
in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.47 in St. Thomas in Virgin
Islands.

The monsoon trough is along 12N74W, southwestward, through
Panama/Costa Rica westward, into the Tropical NE Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N
southward, from 72W westward.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the central
Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support
moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several
days. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward
Passage through Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
will pulse off Colombia tonight and Wed night. A cold front is
forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, with seas
building in the far NW Caribbean through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves along 30N64W 26N68W 21N69W. A cold front
passes through 33N60W, to 31N66W. A stationary front continues
from 31N66W, to 30N74W, beyond Florida near 29N82W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 90 nm on either side of 25N67W 25N63W 27N61W 31N57W.
Isolated moderate is from the NW Bahamas northward from 77W
westward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights to 8 feet,
are to the north of the front.

A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 12N to 23N. The upper
level trough is along 53W from 10N northward. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 25N
between 40W and 60W.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 32N38W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 50W eastward.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1028 mb high
pressure center and lower pressures in the deep tropics,
supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds in much of the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Mainly moderate trade winds are
in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Northerly swell continues in most
of forecast waters from 55W eastward. The sea heights there
range from 7 feet to 10 feet.

A stationary front is along 30N W of 68W. Fresh NE winds will
persist north of the weakening front today. The next cold front
will move off NE Florida early Wed, reach from 31N74W to south
Florida by Thu morning, and from 31N68W to western Cuba by Fri
morning. Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front on Thu.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
mt/ah/df
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