[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 04 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression LISA, at 04/0300 UTC, is near
18.1N 93.1W, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Lisa is about 150 km/81 nm to the WSW of Ciudad del Carmen in
Mexico. Lisa is moving W, or 275 degrees, 10 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots.
Expect the wind speeds to range from 20 knots to 25 knots, and
the sea heights to be less than 8 feet, from 18N to 20N between
91W and 94W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered strong
is within 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 240 nm
of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Scattered to numerous strong is in southern sections of
Honduras, and in the eastern two-thirds of El Salvador. Some
24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 04/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.98 in Tegucigalpa in
Honduras, and 0.61 in Merida in Mexico. Scattered moderate to
strong is within 150 nm of the coast of El Salvador. Anyone who
has interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the
progress of Lisa. The rainfall threat that is associated with
Lisa is expected to continue to diminish. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 inch to 3 inches are possible in parts of
southeastern Mexico through tonight. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 16N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 500 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 18N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360
nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N
southward, within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea,
just to the south of its border with Guinea-Bissau, to 11N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 11N20W, to 09N33W 08N50W 07N57W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 15N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Depression LISA.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the
coast of Mexico near 23N98W.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds cover most of the area. The
exception is fresh winds offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula,
in areas of convective precipitation from T.D. Lisa. The sea
heights range mainly from 2 feet to 4 feet. The exception is
locally 5 feet near and to the north of the Yucatan Channel.

Tropical Depression Lisa near 18.1N 93.1W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
Lisa will move to 18.7N 94.4W Fri morning, 19.6N 95.2W Fri
evening, 20.2N 95.3W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move
to 20.3N 95.0W Sat evening, 19.8N 95.0W Sun morning, and
dissipate Sun evening. Otherwise, high pressure over the
remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat. A cold
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Fri night into Sat.
The front will reach the central Gulf Sun and weaken. Fresh to
strong southerly flow will develop over the far western Gulf Fri
and Fri night ahead of the cold front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. The gradient is
expected to tighten between high pressure that builds southward
over the area and broad low pressure that approaches Florida
from the Bahamas starting late Sun leading to fresh to strong N
to NE winds and building seas in the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Depression LISA.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are in most of the Caribbean Sea,
including in the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from 5
feet to 8 feet from 10N to 17N between 74W and 82W. The sea
heights range mainly from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 04/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.73 in St.Thomas in
the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.32 in Bermuda.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia
westward, through Costa Rica, into the Tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 16N southward from 70W westward.

A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and
southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be
very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could
support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning
early next week while it moves generally northwestward or
westward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of
development, strong winds along scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected across most of the NE Caribbean
Fri night through Sat night. Strong winds are also expected Sat
through Sun night in the southwestern Caribbean associated with
low pressure forecast to develop along the eastern extension of
the E Pacific monsoon trough. The low is expected to move
northeastward toward the NE Caribbean by late Mon while
weakening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
this weekend in the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern
Atlantic Ocean. The system is expected to be broad and
disorganized initially. It is possible that the environmental
conditions may support gradual subtropical or tropical
development beginning early next week, while it moves generally
northwestward or westward in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

A warm front is along 30N52W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center
that is near 28N58W. A stationary front extends from the 1012 mb
low pressure center, to 25N65W to 28N75W. A cold front is to the
north of the area, from 31N to 36N between 40W and 61W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 24N northward between 38W and 75W. Any tropical or
subtropical development of the low pressure center should be
slow to occur during the next couple of days, while it moves
little through Friday, and then to merge with a larger low
pressure area, that is developing to its southwest by the end of
the weekend. More development is not anticipated once this
occurs.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally
strong convective precipitation cover the Atlantic Ocean from
19N northward from 40W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N21W, to 26N39W and 20N57W.

Fresh to strong N to NE winds, and sea heights that range from 6
feet to 9 feet, are from 20N northward between 60W and 66W. The
marine conditions are more favorable ahead of the front, with
gentle to moderate winds and sea heights that range from 4 feet
to 6 feet. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are close to the
convective precipitation. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea
heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are near the
33N21W-20N57W surface ridge.

A stationary front extending from 25N66W to 28N74W will weaken
to a trough on Fri. Strong high pressure north of the area and
in the wake of the front will lead to strong to near gale force
easterly winds across the northern waters, mainly north of 27N
through Sat night. Large NE swell will push southward across the
entire area over the weekend. Looking ahead, a large
non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this
weekend across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern
Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and
disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual
subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week
while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the
southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low
and strong high pressure to its north is expected to lead to a
broad area of strong NE to E winds over most of the northern and
western waters N of the Bahamas early next week. Frequent gusts
to gale force are possible over part of the NW forecast waters
Tue and Tue night.

$$
mt/al
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