[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 18.7N 94.0W at 04/0900
UTC or 130 nm W of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted over the SW
Gulf, within 180 nm north of the center. Isolated flash flooding
is possible across portions of southeastern Mexico. The system is
forecast to linger over the SW Gulf this weekend before
dissipating on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 32W, from 16N
southward, moving westward around 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N
between 30W and 40W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 47W, from 18N
southward, moving westward around 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N
between 40W and 50W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 69W, from 19N
southward, moving westward around 5 knots to 10 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted east of the wave
axis over the eastern Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N14W to
11N20W. The ITCZ extends from 11N20W to 09N31W. It resumes from
09N34W to 08N46W. It resumes from 08N49W to 07N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 22W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Depression Lisa.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the northern Gulf.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted across much of the Gulf
waters. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere, except reaching 7 ft over the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Lisa near 18.7N 94.0W 1008
mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt
gusts 35 kt. Lisa will move to 19.3N 94.9W this afternoon, 20.0N
95.3W Sat morning, 20.3N 95.2W Sat afternoon, become a remnant low
and move to 20.0N 94.9W Sun morning, 19.6N 94.9W Sun afternoon,
and dissipate Mon morning. Otherwise, high pressure over the
remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat. A cold
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late tonight into Sat. The
front will reach the central Gulf Sun and weaken. The pressure
gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building
southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach
Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun leading to fresh to
strong N to NE winds and building seas over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean is
supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh winds. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, a large non-tropical low pressure system is
expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean
Sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to
initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental
conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical
development beginning early next week while it moves generally
northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
Regardless of development, strong winds and scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the NE
Caribbean tonight through Sat night. Strong winds are also
expected Sat through Sun night in the southwestern Caribbean
associated with low pressure forecast to develop along the eastern
extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough. The low is expected to
move northeastward toward the NE Caribbean by late Mon while
weakening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

North of 20N, a 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 28N58W with
a stationary front extending to 25N64W to 28N74W. Scattered
moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. High pressure
prevails over the waters east of 50W. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas to 8 ft are north of the stationary front north of 28N
between 58W and 71W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft
are elsewhere north of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds are found
south of 20N, with seas in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will weaken to a
trough today. Strong high pressure building north of the area will
lead to strong to near gale force easterly winds across the
northern waters, mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE
swell will push southward across the entire area over the weekend.
Looking ahead, a large non- tropical low pressure system is
expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean
Sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to
initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental
conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical
development beginning early next week while it moves generally
northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight
pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure to its
north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong NE to E winds
over most of the northern and western waters N of the Bahamas
early next week. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over
part of the NW forecast waters Tue and Tue night.

$$
AL
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