[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Lisa is centered inland near 18.1N 92.2W at
03/2100 UTC or 40 nm SW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving W at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of 22.5N between 87W and 97W.
Peak seas over nearby water areas are only up to 5 ft. The
depression is moving toward the west and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Fri. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will
continue to move over southeastern Mexico tonight, and move into
the Bay of Campeche on Fri. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next day or two. Lisa is not expected to re-intensify
when the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. Isolated flash
flooding is possible across portions of southeastern Mexico.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin is centered near 50.5N 34.5W at
03/2100 UTC or 820 nm NNW of the Azores moving NNE at 50 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. The post-tropical
cyclone is racing moving toward the north-northeast. A slower
northward to north-northwestward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a much slower turn toward the east on Fri. An
eastward to east-southeastward motion is then anticipated into the
weekend. Martin's peak sustained winds will slowly decrease over the
next few days, but it will continue to produce strong winds over a
very large area well into the weekend. Swells generated by
post-tropical Martin will likely spread across a large portion of
the high-latitude North Atlantic basin, affecting portions of
Atlantic Canada, the Azores, and the Atlantic coast of Europe by
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, Meteo
France, and the UK Met Office

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean along 67W/68W, south of 19N
through the Mona Passage to central Venezuela, moving west at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near
Puerto Rico and from the tropical wave eastward. Additional
activity is inland over portions of Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent.
The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W to
07N20W to 07N29W, then resumes west of a surface trough from
07N32W to near the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. The
surface trough embedded in the ITCZ extends from 13N30W to
05N31W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
over a large area from 02N to 10N between 20W and 40W, and
elsewhere from 07N to 14N between 40W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Depression Lisa located over southeastern Mexico.

Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to
moderate NE to E winds, except fresh offshore western Yucatan
where some deep convection somewhat associated with Lisa is
located. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft across the basin, except locally 5
ft near and north of the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, Lisa will track northwestward to offshore the
coast near 18.5N 93.7W Fri morning, move over the Bay of Campeche
Fri afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low over the SW Gulf Sat
afternoon, before dissipating Mon afternoon. Otherwise, high
pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward
through Sat in response to a cold front that is expected to enter
the NW Gulf late Fri night into Sat, reach the central Gulf Sun
and weaken. Fresh to strong southerly flow will develop over the
far western Gulf Fri and Fri night ahead of the cold front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front. The gradient is expected to tigthen between high pressure
that builds southward over the area and broad low pressure that
approaches Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun leading to
fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas over the eastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, somewhat associated with the
outer circulation of Tropical Depression Lisa located inland over
southeastern Mexico, are still observed the NW Caribbean.
Convection persists over the SW Caribbean where a 1010 mb low
pressure is observed along the monsoon trough near 12N83W. This
convective activity covers the waters south of 13.5N between
Colombia and Nicaragua. A tropical wave is over the eastern
Caribbean generating some shower activity as described above.
Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture with embedded showers
are noted. Moderate to fresh trades are across most of the
Caribbean including through the Windward Passage. Caribbean,
including the Windward passage. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Caribbean
from 10N to 17N between 74W and 82W, and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a large non-tropical low pressure system is
expected to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean
sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially
be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions
could support gradual subtropical or tropical development
beginning early next week while it moves generally northward or
northwestward. Regardless of development, strong winds along
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across most of the NE Caribbean Fri night through Sat night.
Strong winds are also expected Sat through Sun night in the
southwestern Caribbean associated with low pressure forecast to
develop along the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon
trough. The low is expected to move northeastward toward the NE
Caribbean by late Mon while weakening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about Post-
Tropical Cyclone Martin over the central north Atlantic.

A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure located near
39.5N58W to 26N68W, continuing as stationary to 30N79W. A warm
front also extends northeast of the low to 31N55W. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are north of 20N between 60W and 66W along with 6-9 ft
seas. A band of low clouds, with possible showers, is associated
with the front while disorganized showers and thunderstorms are
related to the low center. Marine conditions are more favorable
ahead of the front with gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N48W to
20N61W. A wide-band of moderate convection is within 180 nm ahead
of this trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of
the trough in and near the convection. High pressure dominates
the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1025 mb
center situated west of the Madeira Islands near 33N20W. Gentle
to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are under the influence of this
high pressure.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending will
weaken to a trough on Fri as a frontal boundary drops south and
becomes stationary from near 31N52W to 30N60W and to 28N72W.
Strong high pressure north of the area and in the wake of the
front will lead to strong to near gale force easterly winds across
the northern waters, mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large
NE swell following the front will push southward across the
entire area over the weekend.

Looking ahead, a large non-tropical low pressure system is
expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean
sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to
initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental
conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical
development beginning early next week while it moves generally
northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight
pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure to its
north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong NE to E winds
over most of the northern and western waters N of the Bahamas
early next week. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over
part of the NW forecast waters Tue and Tue night.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net