[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Lisa has weakened to a Tropical Depression but it is still bringing
heavy rains to portions of southeastern Mexico. At 03/1500 UTC,
Lisa is centered near 18.0N 91.0W or 60 nm SE of Ciudad Del Carmen
Mexico moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Most of the convective activity is to the north of the center
affecting the Yucatan Peninsula. On the forecast track, the center
of Lisa will continue to move over southeastern Mexico today and
tonight, and move into the Bay of Campeche on Friday. Additional
weakening is forecast, and Lisa is not expected to re-intensify
when the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. Lisa is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to
10 inches across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northwestern
Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz. Rainfall is expected to
continue to diminish across Belize, northern Guatemala and the
Yucatan Peninsula today. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2
inches are possible across these areas. This rainfall could lead
to flash flooding conditions, especially across portions of
southeastern Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Large and powerful Marin is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone over the central north Atlantic within the next few hours.
At 03/1500, Hurricane Martin is centered near 45.6N 37.9W or 660
nm NW of the Azores moving NE at 42 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate convection is within about 90
nm NE semicircle of center. Martin is moving toward the northeast.
A turn toward the north at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected this evening. Martin's forward motion is forecast to slow
down substantially on Friday. A general east to east-southeastward
motion is then forecast by Friday night, which will likely continue
through the weekend. Martin's peak sustained winds will likely
begin to decrease on Friday, but it will continue to produce
strong winds over a very large area well into the weekend. Swells
generated by Martin when it become a post-tropical cyclone will
likely spread across a large portion of the high-latitude North
Atlantic basin, affecting portions of Atlantic Canada, the Azores,
and the Atlantic coast of Europe by the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products form your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details on Hurricane Martin. Also refer to the High Seas forecast
issued by the Ocean Prediction Center for continuing updates
after Martin becomes extratropical and the NHC advisories cease.
https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 65W, S of
19N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along
the wave axis and also over north-central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent.
The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W to
08N28W to 07N42W to 05N52W. A surface trough is analyzed within
the ITCZ and runs from 11N27W to 05N29W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted over a large area from 03N to
10N between 16W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
T.D. Lisa located over southeastern Mexico. Lisa is not expected
to re-intensify when the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. A
band of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with the
circulation of Lisa, is affecting parts of the Yucatan peninsula
and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Similar convective activity is
also noted near 24.5N88W, and near 21N95W.

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate Ne
to E winds and seas of 2-4 ft based on altimeter data and buoys
observations.

For the forecast, Lisa will continue inland and track to the
northwest tonight and emerge out over over the the Bay of Campeche
near 18.9N 94.2W Fri morning. Lisa is forecast to continue
northwest to near 19.8N 95.1W Fri evening, to near 20.5N 95.3W Sat
morning, then southeast to near 20.2N 95.0W Sat evening, and
weaken to a remnant low and move to 19.8N 94.9W Sun morning. Lisa
will dissipate early Mon. Otherwise, high pressure over the
remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat in response
to a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night
into Sat. Fresh to strong southerly flow will develop over the far
western Gulf Fri and Fri night ahead of the cold front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, associated with the outer
circulation of T.D. Lisa, are still observed the NW Caribbean.
Convection has increased over the SW Caribbean where a 1008 mb low
pressure is observed along the EPAC monsoon trough near 10N80W.
This convective activity covers the waters S of 13N between 76W
and 84W affecting most of Panama and Costa Rica. A tropical wave
is over the eastern Caribbean generating some shower activity.
Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture with embedded showers are
noted.

Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh trades across
most of the E and central Caribbean, including the Windward
passage. An area of fresh to strong winds is seen over the south-
central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia. gentle to moderate
winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central
Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a complex, large non-tropical low pressure system
is expected to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean
sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially
be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions
could support gradual subtropical or tropical development
beginning early next week while it moves generally northward or
northwestward. Regardless of development, strong winds along
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across most of the NE Caribbean Fri night through Sat night.
Strong winds are also expected Sat through Sun night in the
southwestern Caribbean associated with low pressure forecast to
develop in the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Hurricane Martin, forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone over
the central north Atlantic within the next few hours.

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near
31N58W to 26.5N66W to 30N78W followed by moderate to fresh winds
and seas to 8 ft on a building trend. A band of low clouds, with
possible showers, is associated with the front while disorganized
showers and thunderstorms are related to the low center. Conditions
are more favorable ahead of the front with gentle winds and 4-6
ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from
31N48W to 22N61W. A well defined 90 nm wide- band of moderate
convection is ahead of this trough stretching from 31N45W to
20N55W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of this band
of clouds. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters, with a 1026 mb center situated W of the Madeira
Islands near 32N23W Gentle to moderate wind and 4-6 ft seas are
under the influence of this high pressure.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will merge with a
reinforcing cold front today and then weaken into a frontal
trough on Fri. Strong high pressure north of the area and in the
wake of the front will lead to strong to near gale force easterly
winds across the northern waters, mainly north of 27N today
through Sat night. Large northeast swell following the front will
push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking
ahead, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to
develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean sea and
southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very
broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could
support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning
early next week while it moves generally northward or
northwestward.

As previously mentioned, disorganized showers and thunderstorms
are associated with a weak non-tropical area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for slow
subtropical or tropical development of this system during the next
few days as it moves slowly southward today and then turns
westward by the weekend. The disturbance is expected to merge with
a larger system developing to its southwest by the end of the
weekend and further development is not anticipated at that time.

$$
GR
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