[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a strong cold front
extends from 29N83W near Crystal River, FL to 18N94W near
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico, and is quickly advancing SE at around 20
kt. Behind the front, near-gale to gale force winds encompass
nearly the entire Gulf of Mexico. Recent surface observations
indicate sustained winds as high as 45 kt in the north-central
Gulf, with higher gusts. The latest scatterometer pass also
depicts 45 kt sustained winds in the Bay of Campeche off the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are 12-16 ft S of 28N W of 90W, and
8-12 ft elsewhere behind the front. The front is forecast to move
just SE of the Gulf by this evening. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force, except in the Bay of Campeche, by this
afternoon, but strong northerly winds with frequent gusts to gale-
force will continue to affect the basin through this evening.
Seas will subside to 8-12 ft by Sunday morning as high pressure
builds in behind the front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is currently entering
the western part of the area. Strong to near-gale force SSW winds
currently encompass an area from 27N to 31N west of 76W. Gale-
force southwest winds will develop over the waters north of 30N
and west of 79W this afternoon, and southwest winds of 20-30 kt
with frequent gusts to gale force will develop elsewhere north of
27N and west of 70W. As the front passes, winds will shift to the
northwest and maintain gale force speeds through the night. Seas
will build to the range of 10-15 ft north of 30N and west of 70W.
Winds will begin to diminish Sun morning and seas will subside to
8-12 ft by Mon morning as high pressure builds in behind the
front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N10W to 01N18W. The
ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 02S26W to the coast of Brazil near
05S35W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated
with the monsoon trough is from 02N to 07N east of 16W. Additional
scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from the
equator to 03N between 20W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning and the associated strong cold front.

Earlier convection along the cold front has weakened or moved
inland over Florida, however showers remain possible near the
front today. SE of the front, including the Straits of Florida
and Yucatan Channel, seas are 3-6 ft with moderate SW winds.

For the forecast, high pressure in the wake of the front will
shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast
return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold
front. This next cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf
late Mon night, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to
the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds will precede
and follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean diminish to mainly moderate
speeds in the central Caribbean, and then gentle speeds in the
western Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in the eastern and central
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. Patches of low
level moisture in the trade winds may lead to isolated showers
today.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
mainly moderate to fresh trades across the basin through Sun
night. The trades then increase to fresh to strong speeds over the
eastern and central Caribbean late Sun night through Wed night. A
cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW
Caribbean by this evening, bringing fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally
strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters
east of the Lesser Antilles well into next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the W Atlantic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the far northwest
part of the area ahead of a strong cold front. Outside of the
Gale Warning, high pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
anchored by a 1029 mb high near 30N44W. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow prevails over the basin, according to the latest
scatterometer pass. In the waters W of 65W excluding the Gale
Warning, seas are 5-7 ft. N of 24N E of 65W, seas are 5-7 ft. S of
24N E of 65W, seas are 8-10 ft in E swell.

For the forecast, a strong cold front is currently entering the
SW N Atlantic. Gale conditions are forecast ahead and behind the
front today and tonight. Rough seas are expected to linger
through early next week, then slowly subside through Wed night.
Elsewhere, swell will continue to impact the Lesser Antilles into
early next week as this swell event will be reinforced by another
set of swell.

$$
Mahoney
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