[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the
Florida Straits to the NE Yucatan peninsula with gale force winds
over the SW basin and strong to near gale force winds elsewhere,
except the far NW gulf. Seas range between 8 to 18 ft being the
higher seas in the Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move
just SE of the Gulf by this evening. Strong northerly winds with
frequent gusts to gale-force will continue to affect most of the
basin through this evening. Seas will subside to 8-12 ft by Sunday
morning as high pressure builds in behind the front. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N75W to
the Straits of Florida. Gale-force southwest winds are over the
waters north of 30N and west of 79W. Southwest winds of 20-30 kt
with frequent gusts to gale force are elsewhere north of 27N and
west of 70W. As the front passes, winds will shift to the
northwest and maintain gale force speeds through the night. Seas
will build to the range of 10-15 ft north of 30N and west of 70W.
Winds will begin to diminish Sun morning and seas will subside to
8-12 ft by Mon morning as high pressure builds in behind the
front.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N09W to 00N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 00N18W to 01S26W to the coast of Brazil
near 05S35W. Heavy showers and tstms are from 0N to 07N between 0W
to 20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 02N between
20W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning and the associated strong cold front.

For the forecast, high pressure in the wake of the front will
shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast
return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold
front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late
Mon night, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds will precede and
follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong ridge remains in place in the central Atlantic extending
to the northern Caribbean waters. This is supporting the
continuation of mainly fresh trade winds across the eastern half
of the basin with seas of 5 to 7 ft whereas light to gentle
variable winds and seas to 3 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Yucatan
Channel into the NW Caribbean by early this evening, bringing
fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to the area. The
trade wind flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds over the
eastern and central Caribbean late Sun night through Wed night.
Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles well
into next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the W Atlantic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the far northwest
part of the area ahead of a strong cold front. Outside of the
Gale Warning, high pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
anchored by a 1029 mb high near 30N44W. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow prevails over the basin, according to the latest
scatterometer pass. In the waters W of 65W excluding the Gale
Warning, seas are 5-7 ft. N of 24N E of 65W, seas are 5-7 ft. S of
24N E of 65W, seas are 8-10 ft in E swell.

For the forecast, a strong cold front is currently entering the
SW N Atlantic. Gale conditions are forecast ahead and behind the
front today and tonight. Rough seas are expected to linger
through early next week, then slowly subside through Wed night.
Elsewhere, swell will continue to impact the Lesser Antilles into
early next week as this swell event will be reinforced by another
set of swell.

$$
Ramos
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