[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong Gulf of Mexico cold front
extends from the western Florida panhandle to 25N92W and to
inland Mexico just south of Tampico. A very tight gradient between
strong high pressure building over the western Gulf behind the
front and lower pressure associated with the front is resulting
in strong gale-force winds northwest to north winds behind the
front. An overnight ASCAT pass nicely depicted the gale-force
winds. In addition, latest buoy observations are showing strong
gale-force wind gusts in the NW and north-central Gulf areas
behind the front. The gale-force winds will be in the offshore
waters of Mexico, and along the north central Gulf coast, as the
front moves eastward quickly. The wave heights will build to a
range of 10-15 ft in the northern Gulf, and to a range of 12-18 ft
in SW Gulf today. The wind speeds will diminish on Sun, with wave
heights subsiding by early Mon as high pressure in the wake of
the front shifts eastward.

Atlantic Gale Wind Warning: A strong cold front will quickly
enter the western part of the area this morning. Gale-force
southwest winds will develop over the waters north of 30N
and west of 77W this morning, while southwest winds of 20-30 kt
with frequent gusts to gale-force develop elsewhere north of 27N
and west of 70W. As the front passes, winds will shift to the
west to northwest, while maintaining gale-force speeds through
tonight. The wave heights will build to the range of 10-14 ft
north of 29N and west of about 70W. The winds will begin to
diminish early on Sun, with wave heights subsiding early on Mon.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N10W to the
Equator near 21W and to 02S26W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues
to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm northwest of the trough between
17W-26W, and near the coast of Brazil from 01S to 03N between
44W-48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line
from the Equator near 29W to 01S33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information
about the ongoing gale-force winds associated to a strong cold
front.

This strong cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle
to 25N92W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico. An enhanced
areas of numerous showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front
north of 26N. This activity is moving inland northern Florida.
This activity may pose a hazardous risk to mariners as some it may
be of sever intensity, with strong winds and frequent lightning.
East of the front, wave heights are building to the range of 8-12
ft north of 26N. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds along
with wave heights of 3-6 ft are elsewhere over the eastern half
of the Gulf.

As for the forecast, A gale warning is in effect for all the Gulf
waters except the SE part. The aforementioned cold front will
sweep across the rest of the Gulf by earl this evening. Gale-
force winds and very rough seas will follow the front. High
pressure in the wake of the front will then shift eastward through
Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast return flow to set up
over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front
is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night, and reach
from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche
by late Tue. Fresh winds will precede and follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient associated with central Atlantic high pressure
is supporting generally moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Wave heights are in the range of 5-7 ft east of 78W, and
3-5 ft west of 78W.

Patches of low-level moisture embedded within the trade wind flow
are noted east of 74W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
with these moisture patches.

As for the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will support
the moderate to fresh trades through Sun night. The trades then
increase to fresh to strong speeds over the eastern and central
Caribbean late Sun night through Wed night. A cold front will move
across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean by early this
evening, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds and building
wave heights to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong
trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east
of the Lesser Antilles well into next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more information
about the gale-force winds that are soon expected in the western
part of the Atlantic.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the far
northwest part of the area ahead a strong cold front that is
present over northwestern Georgia, and stretches southwestward
to the central and western Gulf of Mexico.

A broad surface anticyclonic wind flow pattern covers just about
the entire area. It is anchored by a 1028 mb high center located
near 30N46W. Fresh to strong northeast winds cover the waters
that are from 03N to 28N from the Bahamas eastward. Wave heights
are in the 10-12 ft range from 23N to 31N and between 20W and 40W.
Wave heights of 7-10 ft are elsewhere east of 62W to 44W and
south of 21N. Lower wave heights of 4-7 ft are elsewhere, except
for higher heights of 6-8 ft over the waters northeast of northern
Florida.

As for the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds are over the
NE Florida waters ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast
to rapidly enter the SW N Atlantic this morning. Gale conditions
are forecast ahead and behind the front Sat and Sat night. Rough
seas are expected to linger through early next week, then slowly
subside through Wed night. Elsewhere, swell will continue to
impact the Lesser Antilles into early next week as this swell
event will be reinforced by another set of swell.

$$
Aguirre
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