[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W, to the Equator along 20W. The ITCZ continues
from 00N20W, to 01S28W 03S37W 02S42W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 180 nm on the southern side of the
monsoon trough from 17W eastward; and within 150 nm on the
northern side of the ITCZ between 23W and 26W. Widely scattered
to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is between 05W and
11W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 600 nm of the
coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to 27N90W and to
22N96W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from
22N96W, to the coast of Mexico at 21N97W, inland in Mexico to
23N100W. A surface trough is in the central and southwestern
sections of the Gulf of Mexico from 26N91W to 19N94W.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N
northward, to the northwest of the line that runs from NE
Florida to the central Gulf near 25N90W. Other rainshowers are
from the surface trough westward.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 92W westward.
The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 92W elsewhere.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are within 120 nm of the coast
of Texas and Mexico, from the stationary front northward.
Moderate southerly winds cover the Gulf of Mexico from the
frontal boundary eastward.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near Tuxpan
in Mexico. The front will stretch across the central Gulf later
today, stalling from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche this evening before gradually dissipating by Thu. Fresh
to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish by this
evening with gentle to moderate winds prevailing behind and
ahead of the front through tonight. A strong cold front is
expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and
very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the
western and central parts of the Gulf Fri night and Sat. Strong
to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front
across the rest of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the low level clouds that
are moving through the area, in the trade wind flow. The
comparatively fastest of the strong NE winds are within 120 nm
of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Mostly fresh to
other strong NE-to-E winds are elsewhere from 80W eastward.
Fresh to localized strong SE winds are within 300 nm to the
north of Honduras from 83W westward. Moderate SE winds are
elsewhere from 15N northward from 80W westward. The sea heights
range from 8 feet to 10 feet near the coast of Colombia, and
from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere in the central Caribbean Sea.
The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet in the eastern
Caribbean.  The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
western Caribbean Sea, except for ranges from 4 feet to 6 feet
in the Gulf of Honduras.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Thu
night. Fresh to strong winds will end south of the Dominican
Republic Thu night and in the Gulf of Honduras by Fri night. A
cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into
the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and
building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong
trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east
of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge passes through a 1022 mb high pressure center
that is near 32N17W, to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is
near 31N45W, to 29N61W to 28N72W, into the SE Gulf of Mexico
near 24N83W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are near the ridge. Fresh
to strong NE winds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 03N to 27N from
the Bahamas eastward. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12
feet from 31N northward between 30W and 50W. The sea heights
generally range from 5 feet to 8 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic
Ocean.

Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail across the waters E
of NE Florida through tonight. Winds will increase again in that
area Fri night into Sat morning ahead of a strong cold front
forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions and
very rough seas are possible ahead and behind the front Sat and
Sun. Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore
waters N of Puerto Rico will subside Thu, but continue to impact
the Lesser Antilles through the weekend.

$$
mt
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