[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N11.5W, to the Equator along 20W. The ITCZ continues
from 00N20W to 01.5S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44.5W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
from 04S to 05.5N E of 17W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 150 nm either side of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ between 17W and 28W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm of the coast of South America S of
03.5N

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola
to 28.5N85.5W to 24.5N94W to the Mexican coast at 20N96.5W, then
continues inland across eastern Mexico to 22N100W. Broken to
overcast low and middle level clouds cover the waters NW of the
front, while scattered moderate convection is along and E of the
front to the Florida coast N of 26.5N. Fresh N to NE winds are
north of the front to the east of 95W, where seas are 3-6 ft.
Strong NW to N winds are behind the front W of 95W, where seas are
6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail across the SE Gulf
with seas of 2-4 ft.

The cold front will stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay
of Campeche on Thu before gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong
northerly winds behind the front will diminish later this
evening, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing behind and ahead
of the front through Thu. A new strong cold front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough
seas are expected in the wake of the front over the west and
central parts of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair and stable conditions prevail across all but the
far SE portions of the basin. Scattered moderate showers are seen
across the SE to the south of 12N and east of 66W. Elsewhere
isolated showers dot the eastern Caribbean E of 70W. The Atlantic
ridge is centered along about 50W, and is only supporting moderate
to fresh tradewinds across the basin E of 80W, and SE winds across
the outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere across NW
portions moderate SE winds prevail. The strongest trades are found
off of Colombia and offshore of Hispaniola. Seas are 5-7 ft E of
68W, 6-9 ft across central portions, 4-7 ft NW portions.

The Atlantic high pressure ridge will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Thu night.
Fresh to strong winds will end south of the Dominican Republic Thu
night and in the Gulf of Honduras by Fri night. A cold front is
expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean
Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to
the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E
swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic surface ridge extends nearly E to W along about 30N,
centered on a 1027 mb high near 31N49W, to a 1022 mb high
pressure center near 32N17W. Strong S to SW winds prevail offshore
of N Florida to 74W and extend to offshore of the Carolina coasts.
Fresh easterly trades cover most of the tropical Atlantic S of 22N
and continue to the Turks and Caicos, becoming moderate to fresh
across the Bahamas. Seas are 7-11 ft across the tradewind zone,
6-8 ft N of the NE Caribbean to 26N, and 5-6 ft E of the Bahamas.
Seas are building across the NW waters in the strong southerly
flow at 5-8 ft.

Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail across the waters E
of NE Florida through tonight. Winds will increase again in that
area Fri night into Sat morning ahead of a strong cold front
forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions and
very rough seas are possible ahead and behind the front Sat and
Sun. Elsewhere, E swell that has been impacting the Atlantic offshore
waters of the NE Caribbean will subside Thu, but continue to
impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend.

$$
Stripling
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