[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits Africa along the Sierra Leone/Guinea
border near 09N13W to 02N23W to 01N32W. The ITCZ continues from
01N32W to 01N41W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered
strong convection is noted from 01S-05N between 10W-23W. Isolated
moderate convection is seen south of 03N between 24W and the
coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends off a 1009 mb low south of the Mississippi
coast near 30N89W to 25N94W then becomes stationary to south of
Tampico, Mexico near 21N97W. A line of thunderstorms is along the
front, N of 26N and W of 86W. Scattered thunderstorms are north
of the front from 24N to 29N between 91W and 96W. Fresh northerly
winds are behind the front with strong winds off the Tampico
coast. Seas range 4-6 ft in the western Gulf. Overnight ASCAT
satellite data shows gentle to moderate southerly winds over the
eastern half of the Gulf, where seas are likely 2-4 ft. Recent
buoy data east of 86W shows seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the front will stretch across the central Gulf
later today, stalling from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche this evening before gradually dissipating by Thu. The
strong winds near Tampico, Mexico will diminish by this evening
with moderate to fresh winds prevailing behind and ahead of the
front through tonight. A strong cold front is expected to enter
the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds are expected along the
Mexico coast Fri night and Sat. Strong to near gale- force winds
and rough seas will follow this front across the rest of the
basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The air is relatively dry across the Caribbean basin, although
isolated showers are noted near Haiti, Jamaica and east- central
Cuba. Overnight ASCAT data shows fresh trades over most of the
eastern and central Caribbean. Localized fresh to strong winds may
be occurring near the coast of Colombia and in the Windward
Passage. Moderate trades prevail in the western Caribbean, except
for fresh to locally strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas are 5-7 ft across the central Caribbean, except 8-10 ft near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean.
Seas are 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean, except 4-6 ft in the
Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri
night. Fresh to strong winds will end south of the Dominican
Republic Thu night and in the Gulf of Honduras by Fri night. A
cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean Sat evening,
bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area.
Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through
the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends generally E to W across the subtropical
Atlantic Ocean, from a 1026 mb high pressure near 30N43W. The
ridge continues W to a 1023 mb high pressure near 30N62W, then
extends WSW to south-central Florida at 27.5N. Gentle anticyclonic
winds are near the ridge axis. However, fresh to strong southerly
winds are west of 77W, to the east of the Florida. Overnight
ASCAT satellite data show mainly fresh trade winds across the
tropics, from 05N-24W. Seas are 7-9 ft from 05N-24N between the
coast of Africa and 76W. Seas are 5-7 ft to the north of 25N.

For the forecast west of 65W, moderate to fresh return flow will
prevail through Fri for most of the area. Fresh to strong winds
will continue off the NE Florida offshore waters through this
evening, with moderate to fresh winds returning through Fri. Swell
that has been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will
subside Thu, but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through
the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to push off the
Florida coast on Sat. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
off the Florida coast on Fri night ahead of the front, increasing
to gale force on Sat, N of 29N between 75W and 80W. Strong to
near- gale force northerly winds will quickly follow the front
with building seas affecting the most of the area through Sun
morning.

$$
AReinhart
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