[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W/23W from northeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands at 23N south-southwestward, and moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered weak to moderate convection is
occurring across N portions of the wave behind the axis, from 17N
to 23N between 18W and 22W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection are seen across the southern portion of this wave,
from 05N to 13N between 23W and 32W. A strong low level wind surge
and Saharan Air dominate the northern portion of this wave.
Satellite imagery suggests a low level to surface low may be near
21N23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, from 27N southward,
and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 34W and 43W. A strong low
level wind surge and Saharan Air dominate the northern portion of
this wave north of 18N, and has formed into an arching trough
axis. Squalls and moderate thunderstorms are along the leading
edge of this trough from 20N to 28N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W/85W from 21N
southward, and across the NE coast of Honduras, Nicaragua and into
Costa Rica, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring within 180 nm either side of the wave,
and across the southwest Caribbean extending to central Panama
along 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
to 12N22W to 12.5N28W to 09N45W. The ITCZ continues from 09N45W
to the coast of Suriname near 05N53W. Outside of the convection
described above with tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted up to 180 nm south of the ITCZ, and
across the coast of northeast Brazil.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough extends across
the southwest Caribbean along 10.5N and is helping to focus
convection over the offshore Caribbean waters of Panama and
Costa Rica.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A westward moving low to middle level disturbance, with surface
trough across the W Florida coastal waters is coupling with an
upper-level trough across the E central Gulf to trigger scattered
heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf E of
85W, including the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida. This
upper trough has also enhanced afternoon convection across the
Yucatan Peninsula, where clusters of strong convection extend
northward along about 90W to 27N. Otherwise, surface ridging
extending from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas is supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas W of 85W. A
low level wind surge follows the trough across the west coast
waters of Florida. Fresh winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are spreading
west northwestward across the Straits and over the SE Gulf. Strong
gusty winds should be expected near strong thunderstorms across
these waters this evening.

For the forecast, the surface ridge dominating the Gulf of
Mexico will allow for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to
prevail through the forecast period. The exception will be the
Straits of Florida this evening and tonight, and the Bay of
Campeche, where fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse
each night to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds behind the western Caribbean tropical wave
have generated scattered showers and thunderstorms that extends
from Jamima to the waters south of Cuba. This moisture had also
allowed for widespread convection to develop across Cuba this
afternoon, covering much of the island. Dry Saharan Air is to the
east of this area and is building across the NE third of the
basin, and is inhibiting late afternoon convection across
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the
Caribbean Basin. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades and 5 to
8 ft seas are present over the central basin. Gentle to moderate E
to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft are found over the
northwestern basin, and offshore waters from Panama and
northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh E to ESE trades and seas
at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean
will support pulsing fresh to strong east winds through tonight,
then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Sat before
increasing back to fresh to strong Sat night. Moderate to fresh
winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through
the week, briefly fresh to strong north of central Honduras Wed
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle-level trough shifting westward across Florida and
adjacent Atlantic waters has moved over western portions of the
state and the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Very active weather
accompanying this feature today has shifted westward and
weather is diminishing across the Bahamas and Florida east coastal
waters. A low level wind surge follows this feature across the
Bahamas and into south Florida and the Straits, where fresh to
locally strong SE to ESE winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft to the
west of 72W, expect in protected waters of the Bahamas.

The Bermuda and Azores Highs are maintaining light to gentle
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 26N between 39W and
Georgia/northern Florida coast, and are separated by a weakening
stationary front along about 45W. Farther south, gentle to
moderate NE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present from 10N to
26N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary
and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh N to NE trades and 5 to
8 ft seas are evident north of 16N between the African coast and
39W/35W, and associated with the tropical wave there. Light to
gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough across Florida
will continue to enhance convection/winds/seas mainly west of 75W
this evening. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge along 30N will
change little through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse in the late afternoons and at nights north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage through
Wed, then again this weekend.

$$
Stripling
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