[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jul 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from northeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 20N southward, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered showers are seen southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
from 12N to 16N between 19W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 20N southward,
and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 03N to
09N between 33W and 45W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 21N southward,
parallel to the Nicaragua coast into Costa Rica/Panama, and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring from near the Cayman Islands to Gulf of Honduras,
and also near the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
across 14N28W to 08N46W. Interacting with a mid to upper-level
low near 10N26W, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is flaring up from 05N to 12N between 25W and 30W. An ITCZ
continues from 08N46W to the coast of Suriname near 06N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm south of the
ITCZ, and near the coast of northeast Brazil.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the offshore Caribbean
waters of Panama and Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over southern Florida is coupling with an upper-
level trough across the E central Gulf to trigger scattered heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms over the central, eastern Gulf,
including the Florida Keys and Florida Straits. Otherwise, surface
ridging extending from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico,
Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4
ft seas for the entire Gulf. Locally fresh to strong winds and
seas up to 5 ft are expected near strong thunderstorms.

For the forecast, surface ridging continues to dominate the Gulf
of Mexico, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas
to prevail through the forecast period. The exception will be the
Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse
each night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal
trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves
westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are creating scattered showers and
thunderstorms near Jamima and south of Hispaniola. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
weather in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to locally strong easterly
trades and 5 to 8 ft seas are present over the central basin.
Gentle to moderate E to ESE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found
over the northwestern basin, and offshore waters from Panama and
northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh E to ESE trades and seas
at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean
will support pulsing fresh to strong E winds through tonight,
then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Sat before
increasing back to fresh to strong Sat night. Moderate to fresh
winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through
the week, briefly fresh to strong north of central Honduras Wed
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough over central Florida and adjacent Atlantic
waters is combining with an associated surface trough in the
vicinity to generate scattered heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms across central and southern Florida, and nearby
Atlantic waters, including the northwest Bahamas. At the central
Atlantic, an upper-level low near 29N37W is combining with a
surface trough to trigger scattered showers from 20N to 30N
between 30W and 41W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

The Bermuda/Azores Highs are maintaining light to gentle winds and
3 to 5 ft seas north of 26N between 39W and Georgia/northern
Florida coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE trades and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are present from 10N to 26N between 35W and the
Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands,
gentle to moderate N to NE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident
north of 16N between the African coast and 39W/35W. Light to
gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough over
southern/central Florida, and adjacent Atlantic waters will
continue to enhance convection, winds and seas mainly west of 75W
today. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge along 30N will change
little through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse in the late afternoons and at nights north of Hispaniola and
in the approaches to the Windward Passage through Wed, then again
this weekend.

$$

Chan
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