[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of
24N and moving W near 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry and
dusty Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of
showers and thunderstorms. No deep convection is associated with
this feature.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of
18N and moving W near 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
northern portion of the wave. However, this wave is also embedded
in the dry and dusty Saharan airmass previously mentioned.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 88W, south of
20N, extending from eastern Yucatan, across Honduras and El
Salvador, into the eastern Pacific and moving W near 10-15 kt.
Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft support scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection S of 20N and W of 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N32W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from
08N48W to the coast of Suriname near 06N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 07N and between 26W to 39W. A
few showers are also noted S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 03N
and W of 43W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW
Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to
northern Colombia. A few showers are present near this feature.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the NE Gulf of Mexico and a trough aloft are
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
eastern Gulf, especially in the Florida Straits. Meanwhile,
weakening storms that developed in the Yucatan peninsula are
pushing into the eastern Bay of Campeche. The rest of the Gulf
enjoys generally tranquil weather conditions. The subtropical
ridge near Bermuda extends southwestward into the Gulf waters,
maintaining light to moderate wind anticyclonic winds. However,
locally fresh winds are likely across the Florida Straits and
eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf,
except for 3-4 ft in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits,
and the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail
through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of
Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each
night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough
that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level trough and abundant moisture in the NW
Caribbean Sea is producing scattered showers near the Cayman
Islands and the lee of Cuba. The central and eastern Caribbean are
fairly tranquil due to the dry and dusty Saharan airmass
encompassing the area. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds are found in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds
occurring in the waters offshore southern Hispaniola and NW
Colombia, as shown in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas
are 5-7 ft in the described waters. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6
ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally fresh winds, primarily in the
Gulf of Honduras, and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean will
support pulsing fresh to strong east winds through tonight, then
moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Sat before increasing
back to fresh to strong Sat night. Moderate to fresh winds and
gentle to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week,
briefly fresh to strong north of central Honduras Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing some showers
and isolated thunderstorms between SE Florida and the NW Bahamas.
The rest of the western tropical Atlantic (W of 55W), enjoys
tranquil weather conditions as dry and dusty Saharan air dominates
the region. The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb subtropical
high E of Bermuda and lower pressures in the Caribbean Sea result
in fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 25N and W of 55W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strongest
winds are occurring offshore Hispaniola and at the entrance of the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere W of 55W, light to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail. Seas of 5-7 ft are found S of 25N and
W of 55W, and 4-5 ft N of 25N.

Farther east, a weak surface trough along 40W, from 20N to 25N,
and divergence aloft, results in a few showers near the trough
axis. The remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic
is dominated by the Azores high and the previously-mentioned
Saharan airmass, maintaining tranquil weather conditions. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present
from 12N to 30N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. In the NE
Atlantic, especially N of 27N and E of 20W, fresh to near gale-
force N-NE winds are affecting the waters off Morocco and the
passages in the Canary Islands, along with seas of 6-9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level trough currently over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue enhancing
convection/winds/seas mainly west of 76W tonight. Elsewhere, high
pressure ridge along 30N will change little through the forecast
period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the late afternoons
and at nights north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the
Windward Passage through Wed, then again this weekend.

$$
Delgado
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