[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1605 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A large and broad tropical wave has its axis along 24W and south
of 20N. The disturbance is moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N and between 21W and
32W. Dry and dusty Saharan air envelops the wave N of 10N,
suppressing the development of deep convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of
20N, and moving W around 20 kt. A few weak showers are noted near
the wave axis as deep convection is being suppresed by a large
area of dry Saharan air.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W, south of
20N, extending from E Cuba, across Jamaica and E Panama and into
the E Pacific. The wave is moving W around 15 kt. No deep
convection is associated with this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 12N25W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from
07N35W to 06N48W and then from 06N51W to 08N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near the coast of Africa from 07N to
13N and E of 21W. A few showers are also within 120 nm N of the
ITCZ between 52W and 56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft is inducing scattered showers over the NE Gulf,
primarily N of 27N and E of 89W. The rest of the basin is
dominated by a weak high pressure regime, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic winds are present offshore NW Cuba, Bay of Campeche
and western Gulf, while gentle to light winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate Gulf
region through the weekend. Under this weather pattern, gentle
to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local
effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong high pressure system near the Azores and lower pressures
over northern South America support fresh to strong easterly
trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea. This was captured
by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in the area
described are 7-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
prevalent elsewhere in the basin with seas of 4-7 ft. Fairly
tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean, except
for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coasts of
Costa Rica and W Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
into late week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
are expected across the waters near the Lesser Antilles into
late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

An expansive subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores extends
southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining generally
tranquil weather conditions. This is also accentuated by a large
area of dry and dusty Saharan air that is traversing the Atlantic
and suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are occurring from 11N to
26N and between 35W and the Bahamas. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. A region of fresh to locally strong winds are noted on
satellite-derived wind data to the NW of the Cabo Verde Islands,
mainly from 14N to 26N and between 22W and 35W. Seas in the waters
described are 6-9 ft. Fresh to locally near gale-force winds are
affecting the waters N of 22N and E of 22W, with the strongest
winds in the water passages between the Canary Islands and also
off the Moroccan coast. Seas in this region are 5-8 ft. Fresh to
strong winds are also noted on scatterometer satellite data south
of the monsoon trough, especially E of 33W. Seas in these waters
are 6-9 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast region through late week. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving across the
Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds just
off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to
the Windward Passage, nightly through Wed. W of the high, fresh to
locally strong SW winds are likely offshore northern Florida
through this afternoon.

$$
Delgado
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