[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A large and broad tropical wave has its axis along 25W and south
of 20N. The disturbance is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 10N between 25W and
30W, and from 09N to 15N between 16W and 23W. Dry and dusty
Saharan air envelops the wave N of 10N and west of 23W,
suppressing the development of deep convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W, south of
20N, and moving W around 20 kt. A few weak showers are noted near
the wave axis, but deep convection is being suppressed by a large
area of dry Saharan air.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W, south
of 20N, extending through Panama and into the E Pacific. The wave
is moving W around 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this feature over water, but strong thunderstorms are over Panama,
related to afternoon heating. Some thunderstorms are also along
the south coast of Cuba and over Jamaica, due to afternoon
heating.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 13N25W to
09N28W to 07N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 06N50W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 06N52W to Trinidad. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm S of
the monsoon trough axis between 30W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging oriented east-west extends across the
central Gulf of Mexico, leading to gentle winds across the central
and NE Gulf. Moderate S winds are evident over the far western
Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds are off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin, except as high as 4
ft off the coast of Texas and off the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
thunderstorms are occurring inland over portions of northern
Florida due to afternoon heating, and an isolated shower or
thunderstorm is drifting over the NE Gulf from time to time. The
remainder of the Gulf waters are not experiencing any significant
precipitation at this time.

Little change in the marine conditions are expected the remainder
of the work week as a ridge continues to dominate the Gulf
region. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each
night into the early morning hours due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1025 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 32N46W and
lower pressures over northern South America support fresh to
strong NE to E trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas
in the area described are 7-9 ft. The strongest winds are found
offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The highest
seas are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades
are prevalent elsewhere in the basin with seas of 4-6 ft. No major
precipitation areas are seen over water at this time, but
scattered thunderstorms are noted over Central America, due to
afternoon heating and a tropical wave passing through the area.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into
late week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are
forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles through Thu.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure near
32N46W west-southwestward to 29N65W to South Florida near 26N80W.
Gentle or weaker winds are near the ridge axis. The ridge is
maintaining generally tranquil weather conditions. This is also
accentuated by a large area of dry and dusty Saharan air that is
traversing the Atlantic and suppressing the development of showers
and thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
occurring from 11N to 25N and between 35W and 78W. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Fresh to near gale force N to NE winds are
likely occurring near the Canary Islands and off the coasts of
Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas there are 7-9 ft. Fresh SW winds
are occurring south of the monsoon trough, from 03N-10N between
15W-31W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. In the rest of the
basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through late
week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves
moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing
fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage,
nightly through at least Fri.

For the forecast east of 55W, strong to near gale force N to NE
winds will continue to affect the waters near the Canary Islands
and off the coasts of Western Sahara and Morocco through Thu
night, with seas of 8-9 ft in the region.

$$
Hagen
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