[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 20W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 20N southward,
and moving W at 20 kt. Convection previously associated with this
wave has dissipated overnight.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from south of Haiti
at 17N southward to northern Colombia, and moving W near 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in offshore waters from
Colombia to NW Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from Cozumel
Island southward across western Honduras into the East Pacific
Ocean moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the Gulf of Honduras and near the Nicaraguan coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Mauritania near Nouakchott across 12N25W to 06N33W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N, E of 18W. An ITCZ
extends from 06N33W to 03N43W, then from 06N48W to near the
Guyana- Suriname border at 06N57W. Convection previously along
these ITCZ segments has dissipated overnight.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough just offshore the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula is inducing scattered moderate convection over the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, high pressure ridging
dominates the basin. Moderate NE to E winds with 3 to 4 ft seas
are present in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf region through the weekend. Under this weather pattern,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW
of the Yucatan Peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local
effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to channel NE to ENE trades
across the entire Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the vicinities of Haiti, Jamaica, and SE Cuba. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the
Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft
seas are impacting the south-central basin, just north of
Colombia. Gentle easterly winds with seas at 2 to 5 ft exist for
the northwestern basin near the Island of the Youth, and along the
coast of Panama. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda/Azores
Highs and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are
expected across the waters near the Lesser Antilles into late
this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda/Azores Highs
continue to provide light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas.
Farther W, moderate S winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident
north of 24N between 70W and the Georgia/Florida coast. To the
south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are seen from 10N to 24N between 32W and the Lesser Antilles/70W.
For the eastern Atlantic, mainly fresh NNE trades and 7 to 9 ft
seas are found north of 13N between the African coast and 35W,
including waters near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. South of
13N, mainly moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
noted between the central African coast and 28W. Mainly gentle E
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast region through late week. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving across the
Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds just
off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to
the Windward Passage, nightly through Wed. W of the high, fresh to
locally strong SW winds are likely offshore northern Florida
through this afternoon.

$$
Konarik
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