[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

The strong cold front that already moved through the Gulf of
Mexico, is moving through the SW N Atlantic Ocean now. The cold
front stretches from 31N76W to the Bahamas and to central Cuba
near 23N79W. The wind speeds are gale-force N of 27N behind the
front. Expect the sea heights to range from 16 feet to 20 feet,
from tonight through Saturday. The wind speeds will diminish to
less than gale-force tonight. The wind speeds will become gentle
to moderate by Sunday. The comparatively higher sea heights will
persist to the E of the Bahamas through early next week.
Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N
northward from 60W westward.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 04N26W. The ITCZ is not
distinguishable at the moment. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong is within 75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough,
and within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, between
12W and 18W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale-force wind warning.

The strong cold front of the last 24 hours has moved through the
entire Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans
the whole area. A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of
Texas, to the coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The broken to overcast skies with
the front gradually are becoming clearing skies more and more with
time. Strong to near-gale force northerly winds follow the front,
except for offshore waters of Tampico and Veracruz that are
experiencing gale conditions with seas to 13 feet.

The strong cold front has exited the basin. Gale force winds
continue along the coasts of Tampico and Veracruz, through Sat
morning. The central and eastern Gulf of Mexico can expect
frequent gusts to gale force through Sat morning with rough
seas. Seas are forecast to build to 12-15 ft with the strongest
winds. Marine conditions will improve by Sun. Then, expect
increasing southerly return flow in the western Gulf, from Sun
night into Mon, ahead of a low pressure system that is forecast
to move across the NW Gulf on Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through central Cuba, beyond the SE part of
the Yucatan Peninsula, to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers are along and to
the north of the cold front.

Patches of shallow moisture are supporting passing rainshowers,
that are evident throughout the area.

Mostly fresh-to-some strong winds are within 240 nm of the
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 66W and 76W. Moderate
winds or slower are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Colombia tonight with
gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. A cold front will enter the
NW Caribbean tonight and reach eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by Sat morning, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a
Dios, Nicaragua by Sun morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas of 8-10 ft will follow the
front with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to
locally strong winds can be expected in the Windward Passage,
from Sun through early Tue, behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale-force wind warning and accompanying sea heights, that are
related to a cold front.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 06N to 16N
between 25W and 35W. The sea heights are reaching 8 feet within
250 nm of the coast of Africa from 12N to 15N. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from 60W eastward.
Strong winds are within 380 nm of the coast of Africa from 13N
to 18N. Fresh winds are elsewhere from 11N to 20N within 500 nm
of the coast of Africa. Fresh winds are from 05N northward
between 24W and 40W. Mostly fresh-to-some strong winds are from
11N southward between 40W and 50W.

A surface trough curves along 31N52W 28N56W, to a 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 25N57W. The surface trough
continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center to 22N57W and to
19N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 19N northward between 47W and 61W. Isolated moderate also
is from 10N to 19N between 50W and 60W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
15N to 28N between 40W and 50W. A surface trough is along
46W/47W from 13N to 24N. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong are from 10N to 28N
between 35W and 50W. tween 42W and 44W. Isolated moderate is in
the remainder of the area that is from 13N to 30N between 35W
and 48W.

A cold front stretches from 31N76W to the Bahamas and to central
Cuba near 23N79W. Strong winds are following the front. Gale
force winds will develop N of 27N behind the front with seas of
16-20 ft tonight through Sat. Winds will diminish below gale
force by Sat night, with winds becoming gentle to moderate by
Sun. Large seas will persist E of the Bahamas through early next
week.

$$
mt/AR
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