[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A cold front passes through 31N65W, across the SE Bahamas,
beyond SE Cuba and the Windward Passage, into the NW Caribbean
Sea. The wind speeds range from strong to near gale-force, to
gale-force, from the cold front northwestward. The sea heights
range from 8 feet near the cold front, to 20 feet at the
northern edge of the forecast area, along 31N. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N
northward between 55W and 75W.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W, to 04N12W and 03N13W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N13W, to 01N20W 03N30W, to the Equator along 36W, to the
Equator along 45W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 12W and 19W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 07N
southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the whole area. A
1027 mb high pressure center is near 28N95W, about 120 nm to the
SSW of the border of the upper Texas Gulf coast and SW Louisiana.
A surface ridge extends from the 1027 mb high pressure center to
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The skies have
been clearing, gradually, during the last 24 hours. Most of the
clouds now are from 26N southward.

Fresh to strong winds cover the Gulf of Mexico. These winds are
replacing the earlier strong to near-gale force northerly winds.
The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 25N
southward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere. The sea heights will be diminishing, also, with time.

High pressure will dominate most of the Gulf region through
early next week. The winds and the seas  will continue to
improve in the eastern Gulf by Sunday morning. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico from
Sunday night into Monday. A frontal system will move off the
Texas coast by Monday night, and track across the northern Gulf
through Tuesday. Expect increasing southerly winds and seas
across the central and eastern Gulf, as this system tracks
eastward through midweek. The next cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Gulf on Thursday. Gale-force wind conditions are
possible behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through SE Cuba near the Windward Passage,
to Jamaica, to Honduras just to the north of the border with
Nicaragua. Fresh to strong northerly winds, and sea heights that
range from 5 feet to 9 feet, are in the NW Caribbean Sea. The
sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either
side of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
cover the area that is from the cold front northward.

Patches of shallow moisture are supporting passing rainshowers,
in the remainder of the area.

Fresh winds have been within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia.
Moderate winds have been within 250 nm of the coast of Colombia.
Moderate winds have been from 10N to 20N between 60W and 67W.
Slower wind speeds have been elsewhere, away from the cold front.

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border. Fresh to strong northerly winds, and seas of 5-9 feet,
are in the NW Caribbean Sea. The front is forecast to reach from
Haiti to southern Nicaragua by Sun night, while weakening. Fresh
to locally strong winds will continue to
pulse in the Windward Passage through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale-force wind warning and accompanying sea heights, that are
related to a cold front.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 02N to 26N
between 30W and 47W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7
feet, elsewhere, from 60W eastward. Strong winds are from 06N to
27N between 33W and 47W. Strong winds are from 28N northward
between 54W and the cold front. Mainly fresh to strong winds are
from 07N to 15N between 23W and 33W. Fresh winds are within 250
nm of the coast of Africa from 12N to 23N, and elsewhere from
05N northward between 20W and 33W. Moderate to fresh winds are
from 25N southward between 45W and 60W.

A surface trough curves from 32N22W, to a 1018 mb low pressure
center that is near 30N23W, and continuing to 27N23W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate is within 180 nm of the low
pressure center in the NE quadrant.

A cold front stretches from 31N65W to eastern Cuba. Gale force
winds are noted N of 27N and W of the front to about 70W with
seas 12-20 ft. The wind speeds will diminish to less than
gale-force, as the front continues to push eastward tonight.
Fresh to strong winds will persist on either side of the front
through Sunday morning, and become gentle to moderate by the
afternoon. Large seas will persist E of the Bahamas through
early next week.

$$
mt/AR
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