[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front extends from 31N66W SW to the Turks and Caicos
Islands across the eastern tip of Cuba to southern Honduras. Near
gale to gale force W to NW winds are behind the front N of 27N to
74W with seas of 13 to 20 ft. However, fresh to strong NW winds
and seas of 8 to 12 ft are affecting the Bahamas, the Great
Bahama Bank as well as the Straits of Florida. Conditions will
begin to improve late tonight into Sun morning as winds become
gentle to moderate across the area. Higher seas will continue
through Monday, and subside by Tuesday.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 03N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N14W to 03N27W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 09N between 07W and 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03S to 05N between 34W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong ridge extends from the southern United States to the
Gulf of Mexico, resulting in dry continental air to envelop the
region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are across the eastern
half of the Gulf with seas to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
also in the SW Gulf with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable
winds are elsewhere in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf region
through at least Mon. Winds and seas will continue to diminish
across the area from W to E tonight into Sun morning. Fresh to
strong southerly winds will set up over the western Gulf Sun night
into Mon. A frontal system will then move off the Texas coast by
Mon night and track across the northern Gulf through Tue. Expect
increasing southerly winds across the central and eastern Gulf Mon
night and Tue due to the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the eastern half of the Gulf and the above mentioned low. The
next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Thu. Gale
conditions are possible behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong cold front extends from eastern Cuba SW across Jamaica to
southern Honduras followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and
seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere ahead of
the front with seas in the 3 to 4 ft range. Isolated showers are
occurring across the Mona Passage. Fair weather conditions are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to reach from the
Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua tonight
and from Haiti to southern Nicaragua by Sun night while weakening.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Windward
Passage through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a
gale warning.

A cold front extends from 31N66W SW to the Turks and Caicos Islands
across the eastern tip of Cuba to southern Honduras. Near gale to
gale force W to NW winds are behind the front N of 27N to 74W
with seas of 13 to 20 ft. However, fresh to strong NW winds and
seas of 8 to 12 ft are affecting the Bahamas, the Great Bahama
Bank as well as the Straits of Florida. Strong surface ridging
covers the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters, thus providing
moderate NE to E winds winds and seas to 8 ft N of 20N. Trade
winds of similar wind speeds are across the tropical waters S of
20N.

For the forecast W of 65W, as the front continues to push
eastward tonight, winds will diminish below gale force. Fresh to
strong winds will persist on either side of the front through Sun
morning but large seas will continue E of the Bahamas through
early next week.

$$
Ramos
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