[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041645
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 05N35W and to
03N45W. A surface trough extends from 08N43W to NE Brazil near
03S51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed on satellite imagery from 01S to 08N and between 31W and
45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive 1032 mb high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic
states extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry and
stable airmass covering the basin only allows for a vast layer of
stratocumulus clouds to dominate the region, leading to fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
confirm moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds across the Gulf.
Seas of 4-7 ft S of 25N, with the highest seas occurring at the
entrance of the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 1-4 ft N of 25N.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the Gulf of
Mexico will produce light to gentle winds through Wed. A cold
front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Thu. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds will prevail across the northern
Gulf west of the front. The front will stall from near central
Florida to Tampico, Mexico where it will dissipate by this
weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will then prevail across most
of the Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front reaches west-central Cuba near 22N80W, where it
becomes a shear line that extends to the Gulf of Honduras near
16N88W. Light showers are noted to the west of the shear line in
the NW Caribbean Sea. The rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions with only a few patches of shallow
moisture catching a ride in the trade winds, producing brief,
weak showers.

The pressure gradient as a result of the subtropical ridge and
lower pressures over northern South America continue to support
strong to near-gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean
Sea, especially offshore NW Colombia. Seas are 7-10 ft in the
south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades are present in
the north-central and SW Caribbean, and behind the shear line in
the NW Caribbean. Seas in these parts of the Caribbean are 4-7 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker trades and 2-4 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between
high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia
will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N63W, just SE of
Bermuda, and continues southwestward to near 26N74W, where it
becomes a stationary front that travels across the central Bahamas
into west-central Cuba. Satellite imagery depict shallow,
scattered showers within 120 nm to the north of the frontal
boundary. Latest satellite-derived wind data show fresh to locally
strong N-NE winds behind the frontal boundary to the coast of
Florida. Seas in this region are 7-14 ft, with seas greater than
12 ft occurring N of 30N and between 64W and 74W.

A robust 1033 mb high pressure system anchored near the Azores
dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, allowing fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A shear line is identified from
17N46W to 20N63W, approaching the Leeward Islands. Shallow patches
of moisture along the shear line will bring weak, isolated showers
to the island chain today and tonight, and a slight increase in
the trade winds. Farther east, a surface trough is along 41W,
extending from 19N to 33N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that the pressure gradient between the Azores high and
the surface trough result in fresh to strong winds N of 17N and
between 20W and 42W. Seas of 7-10 ft are noted N of 19N and
between 24W to 56W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft
prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will continue to shift
eastward, with winds and seas decreasing through midweek. A
second cold front will enter the far NW waters Wed night, followed
by a stronger cold front moving off NE Florida late Thu night or
early Fri morning. High pressure building in the wake of this
front will support fresh to strong winds over the waters N of Cuba
and the Bahamas this weekend.

$$
DELGADO
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