[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 03N35W to the coast
of NE Brazil near 00N49W. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 01S-08N between 39W-48W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N-07N between 31W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure covers the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1030 mb high centered over the Tennessee Valley. Winds continue to
gradually decrease over the basin, but an overnight ASCAT pass
shows fresh to strong N winds prevailing over the Bay of Campeche
south of 21N, with fresh N winds elsewhere over the SW Gulf and
eastern Gulf. The ASCAT data showed moderate NE winds over the
central Gulf. Gentle winds are over the NW Gulf near the surface
high pressure center. Seas of 8-10 ft are likely occurring over
the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 7-9 ft cover the remainder of the
southern Gulf, while 4-6 ft seas prevail over the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the Gulf of
Mexico is bringing gentle to moderate winds across most of the
basin with subsiding seas. Light to gentle variable winds are
expected today and Wed as the high settles over the area. The next
cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Thu,
bringing fresh to locally strong northerly winds behind it across
the northern Gulf. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend
to the southern tip of Texas Fri morning and stall before
dissipating by Fri night. Fresh southerly winds will prevail
across most of the Gulf on Sat ahead of another cold front

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from west-central Cuba near 22N81W to
20N84W, where it becomes a stationary front to 19N86W. A trough
extends off the tail-end of the front from 19N87W to 16N88W in the
Gulf of Honduras. Showers are present along the trough in addition
to isolated showers along the front. Fresh N winds continue
northwest of the front with seas to 8 ft. Similar winds are
present in the western Gulf of Honduras.

Strong gale- force winds continue off the coast of Colombia and in
the SW Caribbean with moderate to locally fresh trades in the
eastern basin. Seas are 8-11 ft in the SW Caribbean and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the SW N Atlantic with
low pressure over Colombia will continue to support pulses of
fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin through Sat.
The gale-force winds near Colombia will end by early this morning.
Fresh NE winds and 8 ft seas continue in the Yucatan channel
behind the cold front that extends from western Cuba to the
Yucatan. These conditions will gradually diminish through tonight
as the front stalls before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds are expected to diminish in the E Caribbean today
and resume again tonight through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W to central Cuba near 23N80W.
Overnight ASCAT pass showed fresh to strong SW winds within 360
nm east of the front, mainly north of 27N. Conditions early this
morning are likely fresh to locally strong N winds along the front
with moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Florida and the
northern Bahamas. Seas of 10-14 ft are likely occurring north of
29N between about 65W- 75W. Seas of 6-10 ft are present elsewhere
north of the Bahamas.

A 1026 mb high pressure near 34N44W extends a surface ridge SW to
the southeastern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail near the ridge axis, with seas of 3-6 ft. Farther east, a
1015 mb low pressure is near 24N40W. A surface trough extends
northward from the low to 31N39W and southward from the low to
17N50W. A shear line extends southwest of the low from 21N41W to
17N50W. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the low pressure.
Overnight ASCAT wind data showed fresh to strong NE winds in
between the low pressure and the aforementioned high pressure to
the north of the area. Seas are likely 8-10 ft in this area. Fresh
trades prevail between 45W-60W across the tropical Atlantic north
of the ITCZ, where seas are 6-9 ft. The remainder of the basin
consists of mainly moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the strong cold front extending from 31N68W to
central Cuba will continue to support fresh to strong winds and
rough seas through this morning. Winds will start to diminish
today and seas will gradually subside to the east of the Bahamas
through Wed as the front continues to push farther east away from
the area. A second cold front will enter the far NW waters Wed
night, followed by a stronger cold front moving off NE Florida by
Thu night or early Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds will impact
the waters N of the Bahamas Fri and Sat.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net