[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures over Colombia will bring brief gale force winds near
the coast of N Colombia through early this morning. Winds will
then remain strong to near gale force through Wed. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass from Monday evening shows strong to
near gale-force trades occurring offshore N Colombia. Seas are
expected to build to 11 ft early this morning. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 04N30W to
02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N-04N between 03W-18W. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is seen from 01S-06N
between 41W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure covers the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1029 mb high centered over east Texas near 31N94W. Winds are
gradually decreasing over the basin, but a recent ASCAT pass
shows fresh to strong N winds prevailing over the Bay of
Campeche south of 21N, with fresh N winds elsewhere over the SW
Gulf and eastern Gulf. The ASCAT data show moderate NE winds
over the central Gulf. Gentle winds are over the NW Gulf near
the surface high pressure center. Seas of 10-14 ft are likely
occurring over the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 7-10 ft cover the
remainder of the southern Gulf, while 4-7 ft seas prevail over
the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to subside across
the basin. Light to gentle variable winds are expected this
afternoon through Wed. The next cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast on Thu, bringing fresh to strong northerly
winds behind it across the northern Gulf. The front will extend
from the Florida Big Bend to the southern tip of Texas Fri
morning. The front will then stall before dissipating Fri night.
Fresh southerly winds will then prevail across most of the Gulf
through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
the Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean.

A cold front extends from west-central Cuba near 22.5N81W to
20N85W, where it becomes a stationary front, which continues to
18N88W near San Pedro Belize. Isolated showers are present near
the front and in the western Gulf of Honduras. Fresh N winds are
northwest of the front. Similar winds are present in the western
Gulf of Honduras. Seas are likely 7-10 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

A recent ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force trades in
the south-central Caribbean, off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
winds surround this area, as far north as the south coast of
Jamaica. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6-10
ft over the south-central and SW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the western Atlantic
extending to the northern Caribbean and high pressure building
in the wake of a cold front in the far NW Caribbean will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the
central and portions of the SW basin through Sat. Brief
gale-force winds are expected near the Colombian coast early
this morning. The fresh NE winds and seas in the Yucatan channel
behind the cold front will gradually diminish today as the front
stalls before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds are expected to diminish in the E Caribbean today and
resume again tonight through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to Nassau Bahamas to
west-central Cuba near 22.5N81W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh
to strong SW winds within 360 nm east of the front, mainly north
of 27N. Available data suggests that strong NW to N winds are
likely occurring within 270 nm west of the front, north of
28.5N. Fresh N winds prevail elsewhere west of the front to the
coast of Florida, and in the Florida Straits. Seas of 10-15 ft
are likely occurring north of 29N between about 68W-76W. Seas of
6-10 ft are present elsewhere north of the Bahamas.

A 1026 mb high pressure near 33N47W extends a surface ridge SW
to the southeastern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds prevail near the ridge axis, with seas of 3-6 ft. Farther
east, a 1017 mb low pressure is near 25N38W. A surface trough
extends northward from the low to 31N38W. A shear line extends
southwestward from the low to 21N41W to 18N48W. Isolated showers
and tstorms are near the low pressure. The latest ASCAT wind
data show fresh to strong NE winds in between the low pressure
and the aforementioned high pressure to the north of the area.
Seas are likely 8-10 ft in this area. Fresh trades prevail
between 45W-60W across the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ,
where seas are 6-9 ft. The remainder of the basin consists of
mainly moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the strong cold front extending from 31N70W to
west-central Cuba will continue to support fresh to strong winds
and rough seas through this morning, west of 65W. Winds will
begin to diminish this afternoon and seas will gradually subside
to the east of the Bahamas on Wed as the front continues to push
farther east. A second cold front will move east of northern
Florida Wed night followed by a stronger cold front moving off
NE Florida early on Fri. Fresh to strong winds will affect the
waters N of the Bahamas Fri and Sat.

$$
Hagen
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