[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough meanders over western Africa along 08N to 09N. The
ITCZ continues from 07.5N15W to 04.5N35W and to 00N46W. A surface
trough extends from 07N43W to NE Brazil near 02S49W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed on satellite
imagery from 01N to 07N and between 24W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive 1031 mb high pressure system across the Mid-Atlantic
states extends southwestward into the NW Gulf of Mexico. The dry
and stable airmass covering the basin only allows for a vast layer
of stratocumulus clouds to dominate the region, leading to fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Recent scatterometer satellite data
showed moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds across the Gulf.
Seas of 4-7 ft S of 25N, with the highest seas occurring at the
entrance of the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 1-4 ft are N of 25N.

For the forecast, high pressure extending across the Gulf of
Mexico will produce light to gentle winds through Wed. A cold
front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Thu. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds will prevail across the northern
Gulf west of the front. The front will stall from near central
Florida to Tampico, Mexico where it will dissipate by this
weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will then prevail across most
of the Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across west-central Cuba near 22.5N80W,
where it becomes a shear line that extends to the Gulf of Honduras
near 16N88.5W. Light to moderate showers are noted to the west of
the shear line from the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Belize.
The rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions with only a few patches of shallow moisture catching a
ride in the trade winds, producing brief, weak showers.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower
pressures over northern South America continues to support strong
to near-gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
especially offshore NW Colombia. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-
central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades are present in the
north-central and SW Caribbean, and behind the shear line in the
NW Caribbean. Seas in these parts of the Caribbean are 4-7 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker trades and 2-4 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between
high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia
will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N59W and continues
southwestward to near 26.5N70W, where it becomes a stationary
front that travels across the central Bahamas into west-central
Cuba. Satellite imagery depict shallow, scattered showers within
120 nm to the north of the frontal boundary. Latest satellite-
derived wind data show fresh to locally strong N-NE winds behind
the frontal boundary to the coast of Florida, driven by the 1031
mb high along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Seas in this region are 6-15
ft, with seas greater than 12 ft occurring N of 3029N and between
the front and 76W.

A robust 10332 mb high pressure system anchored near the Azores
dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, allowing fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A shear line is identified from
18N44W to 16N60W, approaching the Leeward Islands. Shallow
patches of moisture along the shear line will bring weak, isolated
showers to the island chain tonight, and a slight increase in the
trade winds. Farther east, a surface trough is along 413W,
extending from 19N to 33N. Recent scatterometer satellite data
indicated that the pressure gradient between the Azores high and
the surface trough result in fresh to strong winds N of 17N and
between 20W and 42W. Seas of 7-10 ft are noted N of 17N and
between 30W to 56W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft
prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will continue to shift
eastward, with winds and seas decreasing through midweek. A
second cold front will enter the far NW waters Wed night, followed
by a stronger cold front moving off NE Florida late Thu night or
early Fri morning. High pressure building in the wake of this
front will support fresh to strong winds over the waters N of Cuba
and the Bahamas this weekend.

$$
Stripling
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