[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

The 24-hour forecast consists of a low pressure center that will
be near 31N74W. A cold front will extend from the low pressure
center to 23N81W. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights to
range from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 30N to 31N between 71W and
76.5W. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and sea heights
that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere from 29N to 31N
between 64W and 81W. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to
02N20W, and then along 01N/02N to 41W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward from
52W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N to
09N between 32W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 31N73W, to
inland sections of Florida near 28N83W, into the Gulf of Mexico
near 23N90W, which is about 135 nm to the north of the Yucatan
Peninsula. The front becomes stationary from 23N90W, curving
southwestward to the coastal sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered
rain/rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier
scatterometer data were showing strong to near gale-force winds
in the SW corner of the area, from 24N southward from 93W
westward. Mostly fresh winds are elsewhere to the north and
northwest of the frontal boundary. The sea heights range from 1
foot to 3 feet in the eastern one-third of the area.
Earlier data were showing sea heights that range from 7 feet to
12 feet from 20N to 27N between 94W and 97W. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

A surface ridge extends from a south central Texas high pressure
center, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
gale-force wind warning is in effect for the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern
Mexico.

The current cold front, that extends from central Florida to the
SW Gulf, will move across the Yucatan Channel tonight. Fresh to
strong winds in the SW Gulf will diminish tonight, as the front
passes SE of the region. High pressure will build into the
southeastern U.S.A. during the middle and latter parts of the
week, bringing gentle to moderate NE to E winds to the forecast
waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trade winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea. Gentle
to moderate winds cover the reminder of the E and central parts
of the basin. Mainly light and variable winds are in the NW
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet near
the coast of Colombia, from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere, except
from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea.

Patches of low level moisture, and isolated to widely scattered
passing rainshowers, are embedded in the trade wind flow. Some
of the patches of moisture are affecting and/or have been
affecting the following areas: from 14N northward from Jamaica
westward; to the south of the line from the coast of Nicaragua
at 11N to 16N80W to 16N60W; Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will prevail
near the coast of Colombia this week. Moderate to fresh trade
winds along with persistent NE to E swell will impact the waters
that are to the east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several
days. A weakening cold front will move across the Yucatan
Channel tonight, and dissipate in the NW Caribbean Sea early on
Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning.

A cold front passes through 31N73W, to inland sections of
Florida near 28N83W, into the Gulf of Mexico near 23N90W, which
is about 135 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front
becomes stationary from 23N90W, curving southwestward to the
coastal sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
covers the areas that are from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Fresh to strong winds are from 30N northward from 76W westward,
to the north of the cold front.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within 200 nm of the
coast of Africa from 25N to the Canary Islands. Mostly fresh, to
isolated strong, NE winds are elsewhere within 1800 nm to the
west of the coast of Africa from 06N to 24N. Moderate winds or
slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 60W eastward. Some
areas of 5 feet to 7 feet are from 20N to 30N between 50W and
60W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N25W, through 30N34W 29N43W 28N56W, to the NW Bahamas,
to the Straits of Florida.

A low pressure area is expected to develop by this evening,
along the current cold front that is moving through the northern
forecast waters. The low pressure center will produce
strengthening winds and building seas in the far northern part
of the area, from tonight through Tuesday night, with gale-force
winds expected N of 30N on Tuesday. The low pressure center is
forecast to weaken by midweek, but the cold front will continue
moving eastward across the region. High pressure is expected to
build across the western Atlantic Ocean late this week behind
the front.

$$
mt/br
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net