[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282252
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure is east of
Florida near 29N79W. A stationary front extends ENE from the low
to 31N72W and a cold front extends SW from the low to western
Cuba. Winds are currently 25-30 kt in the northern semicircle of
the low, and seas are currently 7-9 ft there. The low will move
east-northeastward and develop gale force winds early Tue morning,
when the low reaches a position near 31N74W. Gale force winds are
expected north of 30N between 77W-68W Tue through Tue night as
the low moves ENE. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected with the gale
force winds. Strong to near gale force winds are expected
elsewhere north of 28.5N west of 65W. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 01N41W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 10W-
34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front is located over the Yucatan Channel,
exiting the basin now. 1031 mb high pressure is centered over SE
Texas. Strong NW winds are noted in the western Bay of Campeche,
south of 21N between 94W-96W, with seas 7-10 ft. Mainly moderate
N winds prevail elsewhere, with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the SW Gulf will
diminish and seas will subside tonight as the weakening cold
front near the Yucatan Channel passes SE of the region. High
pressure will build over the southeastern U.S. during the middle
and latter parts of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate NE
to E winds across the forecast waters. Fresh E to SE winds could
develop over the eastern Gulf by this weekend as high pressure
shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trade winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate winds
cover the reminder of the E and central parts of the basin. Light
to gentle winds are in the western Caribbean Sea. However,
moderate to locally fresh N winds have begun filtering in off the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. The sea heights range
from 5-7 ft near the coast of Colombia, 3-5 ft elsewhere over the
eastern and central basin, and 1-4 ft in the western Caribbean.
Patches of low level moisture, and isolated passing rainshowers,
are embedded in the trade wind flow over the south-central
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
will prevail near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela this week. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front that
extends from western Cuba to near the Yucatan Channel will
dissipate over the NW Caribbean by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
the gale warning in the western Atlantic. Some scattered moderate
convection is occurring to the north of the aforementioned low
pressure, mainly west of 75W, off NE Florida and Georgia.

Elsewhere, a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 32N29W extends a
surface ridge to 27N50W to 27N70W to the NW Bahamas. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds are located within a few hundred nm of
the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh SW winds are likely occurring N
of 29N between 47W-57W. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 22N
between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong trades
prevail from the ITCZ to 23N, east of 50W to the coast of Africa.
Strong NE winds prevail offshore of Morocco, Western Sahara and
Mauritania. Seas are 4-7 ft west of 55W and 7-11 ft east of 55W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure will produce
strengthening winds and building seas as it moves across the
northern portion of the area tonight through Tue night, with
gale-force winds expected N of 30N on Tue. The low is forecast to
pass north of the forecast area by midweek, but the cold front
will continue moving eastward across the region. High pressure is
expected to build across the western Atlantic late this week.
Fresh to strong easterly flow may develop by this weekend as
another cold front sags southward into the area.

For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong winds will prevail
for the next several days from the Canary Islands extending
southwestward over the eastern Atlantic, and extending westward
over the tropical Atlantic to 50W, with 8-12 ft seas over this
large expanse of ocean. Moderate to fresh trades along with
persistent NE to E swell will impact the waters between 50W and
the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. Looking ahead,
strengthening high pressure to the southeast of the Azores could
induce near-gale to gale force N winds late this week offshore of
Morocco.

$$
Hagen
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