[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of gale force
winds over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz region, while an
altimeter pass indicates seas up to 12 ft within this area. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are also noted S of 26N and W of 94W
including the Tampico area. These winds are in the wake of a cold
front extending from northern Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche. Winds will diminish below gale force early this morning
but fresh to strong NW-N winds will persist over the SW Gulf
today. Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by tonight. Please,
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 04N40W to 01N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
about 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 35W and 46W. Scattered moderate
convection is where the monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean,
and also near 01N22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions across the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a
cold front extending from northern Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details. Low level clouds, with embedded areas of light rain are
associated with the front. A surface trough is analyzed over the
Yucatan peninsula. High pressure of 1028 mb located near
Brownsville, Texas follow the front. This system will move
eastward across the north Gulf states through mid-week.

For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh trades over the
south-central Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds across the
reminder of the E and central parts of the basin. Mainly light
and variable winds are over the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft
near the coast of Colombia, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft
in the NW Caribbean.

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
observed across the region producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. Some of these patches of moisture are currently affecting
parts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well as Jamaica and the
Gulf of Honduras. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, associated
with strong upper-level westerly winds continue to affect the
Windward Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure across
the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia
will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia
tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through
Fri. Moderate to fresh trades are also expected across the waters
E of the Lesser Antilles, with seas of 6-9 ft in NE to E swell.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. A weakening
cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel and the far NW
Caribbean tonight into Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high pressure is located near 28N75W and dominates the
Bahamas and SE Florida. Light and variable winds are noted under
the influence of this system, particularly N of 22N and W of 65W.
S of 22N and W of 65W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are
5 to 7 ft east of the Bahamas based on buoy observations and
altimeter data. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located near 30N29W.
The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over
W Africa supports near gale-force northerly winds within about 60
nm of the coast of Morocco in the Meteo-France marine zones of
Agadir and north of Tarfaya. Near gale force winds are also
occurring between the Canary Islands. These winds are generating
rough seas of 12-13 ft near the coast of Morocco. Fresh to locally
strong trades are also noted per scatterometer data N of the ITCZ
to about 20N and E of 50W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas
are 8-10 ft within these winds.

For the forecast west of 65W, weather conditions are forecast to
deteriorate across the SW N Atlantic late today into tonight. A
reinforcing high pressure will allow a cold front to move across
the northern forecast waters today, with a low pressure likely
developing along the front E of Florida by this evening. The low
pressure is forecast to move NE with the front reaching the NW
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by tonight. Then, the front is
forecast to move across the SE waters by Tue evening. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the
front and near the low pressure late today through late Tue night.

For the forecast east of 65W, high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across region over the next two or three
days. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure
over W Africa, and also in the vicinity of the ITCZ will maintain
a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic, mainly E of 50W through Tue. These winds will reach 55W
on Wed.

$$
GR
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