[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front spilling south through the western Gulf is being
Followed by strong to minimal gale-force N-NW winds. The Gale
force winds will continue offshore Veracruz tonight through early
Monday morning. Scatterometer data indicated the presence of 30 to
35 knot winds south of Brownsville, Texas to Cabo Rojo, Mexico.
Altimeter data shows seas up to 12 feet within this area. Then,
fresh to strong winds will persist in the same area on Mon.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are
occurring within about 120 nm of the coast of Morocco in the
Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. Gale force winds will persist
tonight. Seas are about 12 to 13 ft in the gale force winds
area. After the gales diminish, strong to near gale force N
winds will persist through Mon. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 03N37W
to 00N49W. A surface trough extends along 39W north of the
ITCZ to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
The ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 15W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Gale Warning near Veracruz, Mexico.

A 1015 mb low pressure is centered in Southeast Georgia with a
cold front extending southwest to the central Gulf near 24N90W to
20N94W where it transitions to a stationary front near Veracruz,
Mexico. Stratus clouds are observed west of the front, south of
28N. Strong to gale force N winds are occurring west of the front
from 19N-25N, where seas are likely 8-12 ft. Fresh N winds and 3-7
ft seas are elsewhere NW of the cold front. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 2-3 ft prevail over the southeast Gulf ahead of the
front.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the western Florida
panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. The front will continue to
move eastward reaching from N Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche by Mon morning, and from South Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. The front is forecast to reach
the Straits of Florida on Tue, then western Cuba. Minimal gale
force northerly winds are expected over the SW Gulf, near the
Veracruz region, tonight. Then, fresh to strong winds will
persist in the same area through Monday afternoon. High pressure
will settle across the basin by mid-week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central Caribbean,
with fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds
are noted in the Mona Passage. Moderate winds are prevalent over
the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are found
in the western Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean
and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered light showers are streaming
across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Elsewhere, no
significant convection is noted in the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast
of Colombia tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will
prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh
trades are also expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles,
with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are
forecast elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Meteo-France Gale Warning near the coast of Morocco.

A surface ridge extends across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean
from a 1029 MB high pressure near 30N29W to 26N62W to the coast
of Florida near 27N80W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
near the ridge axis, with seas 5-6 ft. Fresh to strong trades
prevail east of 50W from the ITCZ to 22N, where seas are 7-10 ft.
Some light showers are noted within 270 nm on either side of a
line from Trinidad to 23N37W, due to an upper-level trough in the
area.

For the forecast west of 65W, a reinforcing high pressure will
allow a cold front to move across the northern forecast waters on
Mon, with a low pressure possibly developing along the front E of
Florida by Mon evening. The low is forecast to move NE with the
front reaching the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by Tue.
Then, the front is forecast to move across the SE waters on Wed.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake
of the front and near the low-pressure late Mon through Tue night.

For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, mainly
east of 55W and south of 22N, through the next several days, with
seas in the 8-11 ft range.

$$
MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net