[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are
occurring within about 120 nm of the coast of Morocco in the
Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. Gale force winds will persist
through 28/0000 UTC tonight. Seas are about 12 to 13 ft in the
gale force winds area. After the gales diminish, strong to near
gale force N winds will persist through Mon. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N16W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to
02N36W to 01N41W. A surface trough extends along 39W north of the
ITCZ to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to
06N between 05W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb low pressure is located in the north-central Gulf near
29N88W with a warm front extending northeast of the low to the
western Florida Panhandle. A cold front extends southwest of the
low to 22N95W, which continues as a stationary front from 22N95W
to the coast Veracruz, Mexico near 20N96W. Stratus clouds are
observed west of the front, south of 28N. Strong to near gale
force N winds are occurring west of the front from 19N-25N, where
seas are likely 7-10 ft. Fresh N winds and 3-7 ft seas are
elsewhere NW of the cold front. Light to gentle winds and seas of
2-3 ft prevail over the Gulf to the southeast of the front.

For the forecast, the front will move eastward across the Gulf
waters, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of
Campeche tonight, and from South Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche by Mon evening. The front is forecast to reach the
Straits of Florida on Tue evening. Fresh to strong N winds will
continue in the SW Gulf off of Veracruz through Mon afternoon,
with seas ranging between 8 and 10 ft. High pressure will settle
across the basin by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central Caribbean,
with fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds are
noted in the Windward Passage. Moderate winds are prevalent over
the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are found
in the western Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean
and 3-5 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is noted in the
Caribbean at this time.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail near
the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Then,
mainly moderate to fresh winds, pusling to fresh to locally
strong at night, will prevail there the remainder of the forecast
period. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
Meteo-France Gale Warning near the coast of Morocco.

A surface ridge extends across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean from
a 1027 mb high pressure near 32N26W to 28N55W to the coast of
Florida near 27N80W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
near the ridge axis, with seas 5-6 ft. Fresh to strong trades
prevail east of 50W from the ITCZ to 22N, where seas are 7-10 ft.
Some light showers are noted within 270 nm either side of a line
from Trinidad to 23N37W, due to an upper-level trough in the area.

For the forecast west of 65W, a reinforcing high pressure will
allow a cold front to move across the northern forecast waters on
Mon, with a low pressure possibly developing along the front E of
northern Florida by Mon evening. The low is forecast to move
slowly ENE as it drags the front southeastward into mid-week.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the
front late Mon through late Tue, mainly north of 28N.

For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, mainly east
of 55W and south of 22N, through the next several days, with seas
in the 8-11 ft range.

$$
Hagen
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